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Friday, June 26, 2020

Stacks on Deck

      Evaluating Hockey's Best Lines - Where Do Bertuzzi-Larkin-Mantha ...

              Every profitable DFS player will tell you that stacks are important, and the right one can either make or break your night.  Everyone has their own system for how they pick their stacks and what they look for, as you can imagine each sport requires a different strategy. For those that are new let me just start by saying what a stack is and why it is important. A stack is a combination of players that have been selected to work together in tandem to maximize points. A simple example of this is picking Julien Edelman when we pick Tom Brady…. before 2020 of course lol. We pick them together because he is one of Tom’s top targets which means that there is a good chance Tom will look to him. Every time that this sequence is completed you earn double points because you get points for the production of both players. This immediately propels you past a player that only has one of the two in this pair, and as we all know one point can make all the difference. This is just one type of stack; this example is not made to say just randomly pick two teammates and you will win. You must also look at other contributing factors, like what if the patriots go in with a run strategy the above-mentioned stack could fail to produce. Now that I have made enough football analogies here is how I pick my hockey stacks; I have to say this is not the only way this is just a glimpse at my way.

              If you have not already, I would recommend reading the blog post on how I pick goalies because these processes play off each other. As with football, there is a version of stacks that would have us put teammates together, these are the first stacks I look at. From my goalie selection process, I have already narrowed down the 2-3 teams that I believe are going to have strong performances. When we know what goalies are in a bad matchup, we can then find the shooters that we believe will have a strong performance. To further confirm this it is important to look at the defense of the opposing team, just because the goalie is struggling it does not mean his team will not pick him up. I will go further into this stat in a later post, as it requires its own explanation. With that in mind do not know matter what the defense matchup is I do not recommend a stack against your goalie.

After I have identified the team in the best position, I take the top scorers from those teams and look at what line they are on. For stacking I focus on the players in the top 2 lines and see what power-play line they are on. More often than not there will be at least one person that is also on both of these lines. The reason this is huge is that the powerplay by nature should be the player's best chance to score, due to the man advantage. If you have a scorer on the ice you get the points for the goal and you also have the chance to get assist points if you have the passer.

 In hockey, you are awarded an assist if you either pass to the scorer or if you pass to the person that passed to the scorer. With only 6 people on the ice that could earn an assist and 3 people can get an assist having two of the people gives you a high percentage to earn points. To take it one step further the goalie does not come down the ice with the skaters, so it really lowers it to 5 people. So you have a 40% chance to have a player that scores points in DFS when you have a goal-scoring lineup.  

              This is how I start my stacking and team selection process once I figure out my stacks, I use my stat page to weed out other top players. Once I identify who I believe will have a good game I bring them in. As you do this keep in mind that various contests have rules of how many people from the same team you can use. This keeps people from grabbing everyone on a team that is projected to have a strong showing. Be sure to check out the site, and when the season starts get your fact sheet until then follow us on twitter for more updates.



Fire Goon signing out!                                                                  

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

Who's Your Goalie

 Looking at the Colorado Avalanche Goaltending Depth

DFS allows us to play against the world in fantasy sports without having to compete with each other for draft spots. With everyone having access to every player it all comes down to differentiation of lineup. Having the best player is not an automatic win since there is a good chance that a high percentage of people also have that player. Whomever you surround them with is going to be the real difference-maker in your quest to take the pot. I will talk about my choice of stacks and how I use them in my next post, today I want to talk about goalies. I want to talk goalies because this is where I start with my selection process. I try to ensure that I never punt on the position to make sure that I get a good goalie, with a high percentage chance to win.

              You may have heard the adage in hockey that “you can’t win if your goalie does not win!” The addition of the winning goalie and the points associated with the win can be the difference that pushes you into the win column. The winning goalie gets 6 points in the DraftKings points system, and this can be very enticing to any player. So, it makes sense to search out the team with the best percentage chance to win. Personally, I use a combination of metrics to decide who has the best chance to win. Obviously, this is not an exact statement, or I would be a rich man in Vegas.

While I am not a rich man in Vegas, I do use their odds to help with a goalie. A safe selection for a goalie is to go for the team with a Vegas advantage of -150 and better.  It also pays to pair those odds with a goalie playing at home to give him a comfort advantage. While every arena may seem the same, they all have little subtleties to them that can affect a goalie. An example being the boards may sound different in various arenas, the home goalie is better equipped to know the sounds. With better knowledge of the puck's location, it can give the home goalie a better chance to react to a situation.

              So, I guess that means as long as you pick the winning goalie your all set right…. Wrong! We have more metrics to look into to help us secure the pot. On any given day we could have anywhere from 1 to 10 games on the slate, meaning up to 5 goalies have to win. If you pick the winner you want to also pick the highest scoring goalie, and there are several items to look at. The goalies earn points for each saves made, as well as bonus points after 35 saves. For those that use the sports-wise guy hot sheets will be able to see our metrics for high shot games. Picking the goalie with more saves will allow you to overcome the other winners. It can go as far as to propel a losing goalie past a winning goalie every 9 saves made your goalie cancels out the win bonus. This of course would only happen if they do not lose by a large amount as every goal given up loses points. I could go on and on with the stats, but we will need the stat sheets for that. Once the season starts make sure you get your copy and follow us on twitter for more updates.



Fire Goon signing out!


Thursday, June 4, 2020

Home Ice Hockey


            Let me start by saying a resounding hockey is back! Well, it sort of is at least the talks are looking like early June with some key changes to the game. While these changes will affect the players, it will also affect those looking to take down the first big DFS tournament. The current format is set for teams to play in specific arenas as opposed to their own home arenas. This is being done to minimize the player's exposure to the virus while traveling and staying in various hotels. Home ice is important in hockey and not having it should be a factor in how you make your selections in DFS this playoff period. This will be one of many factors that are used for both shooters and goalies.

              Hockey has both measurable factors and those that you cannot physically measure, but we still recognize them. Let us start with what we can see that will affect the game and its home advantages built into the rules. The home team gets last shift after a stoppage, during a faceoff the visiting center must place his stick first, and if we go to a shootout the home team gets to pick what team shoots first. For the purpose of these games that won't affect us since playoff games don't end with a shootout. Lineups are critical for making our pics and deciding our stacks for the day. If you are not calculating DVP for the players, you are doing a disservice to your bottom line. The best shooter is worthless if he cannot shoot, so lets up the odds. A home ice shooter with a good DVP has a better chance to score points, and this is someone that we want to earmark for our lineups. This is just one way we can use home ice to make our picks there are many others that we will get into as we analyze the playoffs.

              As I mentioned there are also advantages that we cannot measure on the stat sheets, but we recognize them. The single most important being the power of fans, they affect the game in ways that we might not see in the stats. It is proven that the fans can make an impact on the decisions that the officials make, especially if it is a close call. To take it one step further the closer the fans are to the official the more power they can have over the choice. We see this in basketball with the courtside seat basketball has one of the highest home-court advantages in all sports. Does this mean pick the home team every single time no it instead means that we need to consider the home advantage in our projections? To take it one step further what if it is an away team that travels well such as the Patriots, Cowboys, or any SEC football team. Now we have a chance to see the home advantage shift with fan attendance. With the new NHL format, the lack of fans negates the entire fan boost to the calls. Perhaps we will see a more even called games which can mean a lot in the world of DFS hockey.

              Hockey is one of few sports that when a penalty is called the violating team loses a player for a certain amount of time. The man advantage can be a great opportunity for the other team to either score or at the bare minimum ware out the goalie and skaters. With that in mind, hockey has many players that are known, agitators, and bruisers. A bruiser being someone that lays big hits and picks fights, with the goal of removing the other team’s top player from the ice. With the home fan advantage, a bruiser can sometimes get away with hits that an away player might not. This can set off a chain reaction that almost always leads to a fight or at least some type of frustration penalty by an away team skater. It is for this reason that I like to play these games that look like they could be chippy for the chance at more power-play opportunities. It may take a few games to see how the officials call these games for us to determine if this metric is still valid.

              These highlight just a couple of the advantages and disadvantages that are worked into the new proposed rule changes. As we lead up to the restart of the NHL season, or I guess the playoffs is a better term. I will give my take on how I will be playing these games and rules changes, I hope that I can leave you all with something to think on. Be on the lookout for my next post on goalies and how I will be picking them.

Fire Goon signing out!


Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Top 30 Fantasy Baseball Relief Pitchers

1. Josh Hader, MIL

2. Kirby Yates, SD

3. Tyler Glasnow, TB

4. A. Chapman, NYY

5. Roberto Osuna, HOU

6. Liam Hendriks, OAK

7. B. Woodruff, MIL

8. Kenley Jansen, LAD

9. Edwin Diaz, NYM

10. Brad Hand, CLE

11. Taylor Rogers, MIN

12. Ken Giles, TOR

13. C. Carrasco, CLE

14. Max Fried, ATL

15. Craig Kimbrel, CHC

16. R. Iglesias, CIN

17. Hector Neris, PHI

18. Jesus Luzardo, OAK

19. B. Workman, BOS

20. Nick Anderson, TB

21. Kenta Maeda, MIN

22. Hansel Robles, LAA

23. Julio Urias, LAD

24. Alex Colome, CWS

25. A. Bradley, ARI

26. S. Doolittle, WSH

27. Jose Leclerc, TEX

28. G. Gallegos, STL

29. Keone Kela, PIT

30. Joe Jimenez, DET

Top 75 Fantasy Baseball Pitchers

1. Gerrit Cole, NYY

2. Jacob deGrom, NYM

3. Max Scherzer, WSH

4. W. Buehler, LAD

5. J. Verlander, HOU

6. Jack Flaherty, STL

7. S. Strasburg, WSH

8. Shane Bieber, CLE

9. C. Kershaw, LAD

10. Blake Snell, TB

11. Luis Castillo, CIN

12. M. Clevinger, CLE

13. C. Morton, TB

14. P. Corbin, WSH

15. Aaron Nola, PHI

16. Chris Paddack, SD

17. Zack Greinke, HOU

18. Lucas Giolito, CWS

19. Yu Darvish, CHC

20. Tyler Glasnow, TB

21. Jose Berrios, MIN

22. Trevor Bauer, CIN

23. Corey Kluber, TEX

24. Sonny Gray, CIN

25. Zack Wheeler, PHI

26. B. Woodruff, MIL

27. Mike Soroka, ATL

28. Lance Lynn, TEX

29. E. Rodriguez, BOS

30. Shohei Ohtani, LAA

31. M. Bumgarner, ARI

32. F. Montas, OAK

33. C. Carrasco, CLE

34. Hyun-Jin Ryu, TOR

35. K. Hendricks, CHC

36. David Price, LAD

37. D. Lamet, SD

38. Zac Gallen, ARI

39. Max Fried, ATL

40. Robbie Ray, ARI

41. Matthew Boyd, DET

42. Jesus Luzardo, OAK

43. Mike Minor, TEX

44. Kenta Maeda, MIN

45. Julio Urias, LAD

46. G. Marquez, COL

47. Andrew Heaney, LAA

48. Sean Manaea, OAK

49. Jake Odorizzi, MIN

50. Luke Weaver, ARI

51. Jose Leclerc, TEX

52. L. McCullers Jr., HOU

53. M. Tanaka, NYY

54. Joe Musgrove, PIT

55. M. Foltynewicz, ATL

56. James Paxton, NYY

57. M. Stroman, NYM

58. C. Martinez, STL

59. Ian Kennedy, KC

60. Caleb Smith, MIA

61. Joey Lucchesi, SD

62. Jon Gray, COL

63. Jose Urquidy, HOU

64. Mitch Keller, PIT

65. D. Keuchel, CWS

66. Chris Archer, PIT

67. Dylan Bundy, LAA

68. Brendan McKay, TB MiLB

69. Y. Chirinos, TB

70. R. Yarbrough, TB

71. A. DeSclafani, CIN

72. G. Richards, SD

73. Jose Quintana, CHC

74. Steven Matz, NYM

75. S. Alcantara, MIA

Top 75 Fantasy Baseball Outfielders

1. Mike Trout, LAA 

2. R. Acuna Jr., ATL

3. C. Yelich, MIL

4. C. Bellinger, LAD

5. Mookie Betts, LAD

6. Juan Soto, WSH

7. J.D. Martinez, BOS

8. Bryce Harper, PHI

9. S. Marte, ARI

10. Y. Alvarez, HOU

11. C. Blackmon, COL

12. A. Meadows, TB

13. G. Springer, HOU

14. Ketel Marte, ARI

15. Kris Bryant, CHC

16. Eloy Jimenez, CWS

17. W. Merrifield, KC

18. Aaron Judge, NYY

19. Tommy Pham, SD

20. Eddie Rosario, MIN

21. Marcell Ozuna, ATL

22. G. Stanton, NYY

23. Victor Robles, WSH

24. R. Laureano, OAK

25. Jorge Soler, KC

26. Joey Gallo, TEX

27. N. Castellanos, CIN

28. Luis Robert, CWS

29. M. Brantley, HOU

30. Jeff McNeil, NYM

31. A. Benintendi, BOS

32. M. Conforto, NYM

33. Rhys Hoskins, PHI

34. Franmil Reyes, CLE

35. Oscar Mercado, CLE

36. David Dahl, COL

37. Max Kepler, MIN

38. K. Schwarber, CHC

39. Lorenzo Cain, MIL

40. Cavan Biggio, TOR

41. Danny Santana, TEX

42. L. Gurriel Jr., TOR

43. Kyle Tucker, HOU

44. B. Reynolds, PIT

45. Adam Eaton, WSH

46. Mallex Smith, SEA

47. Justin Upton, LAA

48. Byron Buxton, MIN

49. Tommy Edman, STL

50. J.D. Davis, NYM

51. Yasiel Puig, FA

52. A. McCutchen, PHI

53. Hunter Dozier, KC

54. Scott Kingery, PHI

55. Shin-Soo Choo, TEX

56. A. Garcia, MIL

57. W. Calhoun, TEX

58. David Peralta, ARI

59. Trey Mancini, BAL

60. Alex Verdugo, BOS

61. Ryan Braun, MIL

62. B. Anderson, MIA

63. Mark Canha, OAK

64. Nick Senzel, CIN

65. Joc Pederson, LAD

66. A.J. Pollock, LAD

67. Nomar Mazara, CWS

68. G. Polanco, PIT

69. R. Grichuk, TOR

70. H. Renfroe, TB

71. Luis Arraez, MIN

72. G. Hampson, COL

73. Wil Myers, SD

74. C. Dickerson, MIA

75. M. Yastrzemski, SF

Top 50 Fantasy Baseball ShortStops

1. Trea Turner, WSH

2. Trevor Story, COL

3. F. Lindor, CLE

4. Alex Bregman, HOU

5. F. Tatis Jr., SD

6. Javier Baez, CHC

7. X. Bogaerts, BOS

8. G. Torres, NYY

9. Ketel Marte, ARI

10. A. Mondesi, KC

11. Manny Machado, SD

12. J. Villar, MIA

13. Bo Bichette, TOR

14. Marcus Semien, OAK

15. Tim Anderson, CWS

16. Carlos Correa, HOU

17. Jorge Polanco, MIN

18. E. Escobar, ARI

19. Corey Seager, LAD

20. Elvis Andrus, TEX

21. Amed Rosario, NYM

22. Danny Santana, TEX

23. L. Gurriel Jr., TOR

24. Paul DeJong, STL

25. Jean Segura, PHI

26. Tommy Edman, STL

27. D. Gregorius, PHI

28. Gavin Lux, LAD

29. Scott Kingery, PHI

30. Kevin Newman, PIT

31. D. Swanson, ATL

32. G. Hampson, COL

33. Willy Adames, TB

34. A. Simmons, LAA

35. Nick Madrigal, CWS NRI

36. Niko Goodrum, DET

37. Nick Ahmed, ARI

38. J. Profar, SD

39. C. Kieboom, WSH

40. H. Alberto, BAL

41. M. Dubon, SF

42. Jon Berti, MIA

43. Luis Urias, MIL

44. D. Fletcher, LAA

45. A. Cabrera, WSH

46. Freddy Galvis, CIN

47. Jose Peraza, BOS

48. Nico Hoerner, CHC

49. Jose Iglesias, BAL

50. Leury Garcia, CWS

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Third Baseman

">Any questions just tweet us at br />

1. Nolan Arenado, COL

2. Alex Bregman, HOU 

A. Rendon, LAA

4. Jose Ramirez, CLE

5. Rafael Devers, BOS

6. Kris Bryant, CHC

7. Manny Machado, SD

8. Yoan Moncada, CWS

9. V. Guerrero Jr., TOR

10. E. Suarez, CIN

11. DJ LeMahieu, NYY

12. J. Donaldson, MIN

13. Matt Chapman, OAK

14. Max Muncy, LAD

15. Jeff McNeil, NYM

16. M. Moustakas, CIN

17. E. Escobar, ARI

18. Miguel Sano, MIN

19. Justin Turner, LAD

20. Yuli Gurriel, HOU

21. Danny Santana, TEX

22. Tommy Edman, STL

23. J.D. Davis, NYM

24. Hunter Dozier, KC

25. Scott Kingery, PHI

26. Ryan McMahon, COL

27. B. Anderson, MIA

28. Gio Urshela, NYY

29. M. Andujar, NYY

30. S. Castro, WSH

31. Nick Solak, TEX

32. Luis Arraez, MIN

33. Wil Myers, SD

34. Yandy Diaz, TB

35. Renato Nunez, BAL

36. T. Stella, LAA

37. M. Chavis, BOS

38. Kyle Seager, SEA

39. Austin Riley, ATL

40. M. Carpenter, STL

41. Ian Happ, CHC

42. Travis Shaw, TOR

43. H. Kendrick, WSH

44. H. Alberto, BAL

45. Evan Longoria, SF

46. Jon Berti, MIA

47. Y. Tsutsugo, TB

48. D. Fletcher, LAA

49. Maikel Franco, KC

50. A. Cabrera, WSH

Sunday, April 26, 2020

Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Second Baseman

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1. Jose Altuve, HOU

2. Ozzie Albies, ATL      

3.  G. Torres, NYY        

4. Yoan Moncada, CWS    

5. Keston Hiura, MIL

Ketel Marte, ARI

7. W. Merrifield, KC

8. J. Villar, MIA

9. DJ LeMahieu, NYY

10. Max Muncy, LAD

11. Jeff McNeil, NYM

12. M. Moustakas, CIN

13. E. Escobar, ARI

14. Cavan Biggio, TOR

15. Danny Santana, TEX

16. L. Gurriel Jr., TOR

17. Tommy Edman, STL

18. Gavin Lux, LAD

19. Scott Kingery, PHI

20. Brandon Lowe, TB

21. Kevin Newman, PIT

22. Kolten Wong, STL

23. Daniel Murphy, COL

24. Ryan McMahon, COL

25. Rougned Odor, TEX

26. C. Hernandez, CLE

27. Nick Senzel, CIN

28. S. Castro, WSH

29. Nick Solak, TEX

30. Luis Arraez, MIN

31. G. Hampson, COL

32. T. Stella, LAA

33. M. Chavis, BOS

34. J. Schoop, DET

35. Robinson Cano, NYM

36. Dee Gordon, SEA

37. Ian Happ, CHC

38. Nick Madrigal, CWS NRI

39. Niko Goodrum, DET

40. Travis Shaw, TOR

41. J. Profar, SD

42. H. Kendrick, WSH

43. H. Alberto, BAL

44. M. Dubon, SF

45. Jon Berti, MIA

46. Luis Urias, MIL

47. Adam Frazier, PIT

48. D. Fletcher, LAA

49. A. Cabrera, WSH

50. Freddy Galvis, CIN

Saturday, April 25, 2020

Top 50 Fantasy Baseball First Baseman

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1. C. Bellinger, LAD

2. F. Freeman, ATL

3. Pete Alonso, NYM

4. Matt Olson, OAK 
5. P. Goldschmidt, STL

6. Anthony Rizzo, CHC

7. Jose Abreu, CWS

8. Rhys Hoskins, PHI 

9. Josh Bell, PIT

10. Max Muncy, LAD

11. DJ LeMahieu, NYY

12. C. Santana, CLE

13. Miguel Sano, MIN

14. Y. Grandal, CWS

15. E. Encarnacion, CWS

16. Yuli Gurriel, HOU

17. Danny Santana, TEX

18. Hunter Dozier, KC

19. C. Walker, ARI

20. Brandon Lowe, TB

21. C.J. Cron, DET

22. Eric Hosmer, SD

23. Luke Voit, NYY

24. Daniel Murphy, COL

25. Ryan McMahon, COL

26. Trey Mancini, BAL

27. Joey Votto, CIN

28. Mark Canha, OAK

29. Joc Pederson, LAD

30. Wil Myers, SD

31. Yandy Diaz, TB

32. Renato Nunez, BAL

33. C. Vazquez, BOS

34. M. Chavis, BOS

35. Justin Smoak, MIL

36. Jesus Aguilar, MIA

37. M. Cabrera, DET

38. Niko Goodrum, DET

39. Brandon Belt, SF

40. H. Kendrick, WSH

41. Nate Lowe, TB MiLB

42. Eric Thames, WSH

43. T. d'Arnaud, ATL

44. Jose Martinez, TB

45. D. Vogelbach, SEA

46. Ji-Man Choi, TB

47. Albert Pujols, LAA

48. Evan White, SEA

49. G. Cooper, MIA

50. Rowdy Tellez, TOR

Thursday, April 23, 2020

Top 25 Fantasy Baseball Catchers

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1. J.T. Realmuto - Phillies

2. Gary Sanchez - Yankees

3. Yasmani Grandal - White Sox

4. Willson Contreras - Cubs

5. Salvador Perez - Royals

6. Mitch Garver - Twins

7. Will Smith - Dodgers

8. Jorge Alfaro - Marlins

9. Omar Narvaez - Brewers

10. Wilson Ramos - Mets

11. Christian Vazquez - Red Sox 

12. Carson Kelly - D-backs

13. Francisco Mejia - Padres

14. Sean Murphy - A's

15. Roberto Perez - Indians

16. Tom Murphy - Mariners

17. Robinson Chirinos - Rangers

18. Kurt Suzuki - Nationals

19. Buster Posey - Giants

20. Danny Jansen - Blue Jays

21. Yadier Molina - Cardinals

22. Travis d'Arnaud - Braves

23. Martin Maldonado - Astros

24. Jason Castro - Angels

25. Pedro Severino - Orioles