Thursday, November 6, 2014

Start em’ if you got ‘em – Week 10


Adam Stoczynski
Bitter Chicago sports fan, wagering enthusiast, self-proclaimed sports expert
@AllAboutSto on twitter


Are you kidding me? It’s already November and week 10 of the football season is here. Wow how time flies. Most of us only have four more games before playoff time comes, and you don’t want to be on the outside looking in when the cutoff for the final spot to the big dance is determined. With little time left in the regular season, injuries mounting, and another huge bye week in store for week 10, I want to steal a line from Aaron Rodgers, “R-E-L-A-X, Relax” it’s going to be okay, I promise. I came up lame on a few “start” predictions last week, but you were in the money if you listened and sat all my “quit” guys. Philip Rivers? Yea, I was even impressed with that one. I need a win in all of my leagues this week and I’m sure you do too. It was a rough Tuesday morning after my fate was sealed Monday night. I went 0-3 for the week, 0-4 for those of you reminding me I also lost in week one of fantasy basketball. Anyone else feel my pain? It was a brutal week of depression and heartache, but we have to move on, I have to move on, nothing a 4-0 weekend can’t cure right? Let’s do it.

Start ‘em if you got ‘em

Quarterback

Cam Newton @ PHI – I know, I too watched him last Thursday and was screaming at the top of my lungs for him to complete a pass to Kelvin Benjamin. Cam looked awful, there’s no doubt about it, but there’s no way he plays that bad again. Yes, he’s given us 3 duds in a row, but with a less than stellar Eagle’s D this week, Cam will bounce back. He ran one in for us last week, he owes Benjamin for missing him a few times, plus they are fighting to win the division (hard to believe), use Superman this week, he needs to come through for not only your team, but for his own.

Matthew Stafford vs MIA – We are going to find out this week if these are the new Lions or the old Lions. Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush are back healthy, they are off a bye, and on their fast home turf. Miami is playing well, but after the dismantling of San Diego last week, I think they lay a dud in Detroit. Miami is not giving up much through the air, but I like Stafford and his weapons more than I like the actual matchup. 

Running Back

Reggie Bush vs MIA – He’s back on the field and he’s back on the “start list.” Again, it’s not the best matchup, but they need a spark. With Bush and Johnson back, the offense should be rolling and I like him to have a good game vs his old team. 

Justin Forsett vs TEN – Tennessee is one of the worst rush defenses in the league and giving up 134 yards per game. The Ravens should be winning in this one so the touches will be there late. It also looks like this is down to a two running back rotation, rather than the 3-headed monster when Pierce was involved. 

Wide Receiver

Jordy Nelson vs CHI – I know you aren’t sitting one of the best receivers in fantasy football, but in case you thought you may have a better option; you don’t. The Bears will not have an answer for him. After having a quiet game in New Orleans two weeks ago, he will get in the end zone Sunday. He will be involved often so don’t go away from him. 

Roddy White @ TB – Atlanta is coming off the bye and has had time to right the ship. This is not a good team overall, but the offense can still produce. I like Matt Ryan this week vs the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs, I also like Roddy White. Look for the Falcons to air it out and go back to what they do best. They are going to move the ball and need a win to keep close in the NFS South. 

Kelvin Benjamin @ PHI – I love Cam and Kelvin to bounce back in a big way this week. Though he only had 2 catches last week, he did get 10 targets. He’s also yet to have a game with fewer than 6 targets. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has his first multi-touchdown game of his career, in fact, I’m counting on it.

Tight End

Julius Thomas @ OAK – Been very quiet the last few weeks, 8-83-1 in his last three games. We are lucky he got in the end last week or it would have been real bad. The ball is always getting spread around, but he is still a huge mismatch. He will bounce back this week vs Oakland. Do not get discouraged on him, he is always a high end TE1. 

Martellus Bennett @ GB – Had 6-95-1 vs the Patriots in his last game. He’s a huge part of the offense and he will be used a lot this week in play action. The Bears should be running a ton with Forte vs the worst rush defense in the league. The run will open the play action to Bennett in the seam, he’s a top 5 tight end this week.  

Jason Witten @ JAX (In London) – Whether it’s Romo or Weeden, I like the check downs to be plentiful. Romo with the back is a little worrisome, he will find his favorite target if he plays because I don’t think he will be able to get the ball down field. If Weeden is the one who goes, that’s even better. He’s bad and will take a page out of Alex Smith’s playbooks with check downs galore. Witten never has the upside, but he will put up another solid game as a reliable tight end.

Defense

Detroit vs MIA – Playing at home for the first time in three weeks, they will be pumped up. I think Detroit takes care of business vs Miami. Tannehill is playing well, but averages almost a pick per game, plus Detroit is one of the best D’s in the league, and get rookie Kyle Van Noy back from injury this week. 

Sit ‘em and quit ‘em

Quarterback

Ryan Tannehill @ DET – See Above. Detroit is going to get to him on Sunday and rattle him. The last few weeks he’s virtually going every other week with a good game, and this is an every other. He’s on the road vs one of the best defensive teams in the league, I’d look elsewhere.

Mark Sanchez vs CAR – Can someone please clarify for me, because I am a little confused. This is the same Mark Sanchez from USC correct? From the Jets? The butt fumble? This is the guy who was replaced by Geno Smith right? The guy who has 71 interceptions compared to 70 touchdowns for his career? This is now the same guy who is on everyone’s “pick up” list for week 10? Come on people it’s the same Mark Sanchez! It’s going to take a heck of a lot more than a few good preseason performances and a good end to week 9 to get me on the Sanchez Train. I don’t care who he is playing, do not start him. The Eagles are top 10 in rushes per game and that number will only climb with Sanchez at the helm. Even if he has a great day vs the Panthers, you won’t convince me he’s an NFL starter or a fantasy starter. 

Running Back

Lamar Miller @ DET – I guess you can say I’m all in on Detroit this week, because I am. The Lions have only given up 4 rushing touchdowns total on the year and are giving up 74 yards per game. There won’t be much room for him to run, plus he’s banged up. Maybe he can catch a swing pass and get something out of it, but I wouldn’t count on that. 

Darren McFadden vs DEN – He’s on here in back-to-back weeks. He’s been a good option, but Denver is giving up next to nothing on the ground as of late and only 71 yards per game on the year. Denver also hasn’t given up a rushing touchdown since week 5 vs ARI. MJD is also getting involved, which still baffles me. 

The Buffalo backfield vs KC – I think I say this every week, but KC is still yet to give up a touchdown on the ground this year.  With Jackson maybe coming back, Dixon involved, and the lingering possibility of Brown, I just don’t know who to trust. Jackson is the man moving forward, but I’d wait and see how healthy he is and how much the other guys are involved. Too messy for me this week vs a good defense, I’d stay away.

Wide Receiver

Michael Crabtree @ NO – Kaepernick is not playing well and Crabtree is not producing like their number one receiver, Boldin actually leads him in targets, catches, and yards. The 49’ers are desperate for a win, but the Saints will want to keep it rolling at home. You got to think he gets it going soon, but I don’t like his chances this week with Lewis on him.

Rueben Randle @ SEA – In Seattle, so off the bat it’s not a good matchup. The ball is being spread around and the Giants are obviously looking for Beckham going forward. Randle has been very disappointing since Cruz went down, which the opposite of what fantasy owners were hoping. 

Tight End

Delanie Walker @ BAL – Only 4 touchdowns on the year and hasn’t had 5 catches in a game since week 4. He was great to start the year, but he’s on the very low end of a tight end 1. You can’t trust his quarterback right now and they have a very tough matchup in Baltimore. If you have someone else, use him.

Defense 

San Francisco @ NO – Are the Saints back? I’m not convinced of that quite yet, but I would not take my chances with a fantasy Defense in the Superdome vs Drew Brees. They have Giants and Washington in the next two, so if you want to hold on to them you can, but after that they get Seattle in weeks 13 and 15. 

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