Monday, February 24, 2014

Fantasy Baseball Help: Khris Davis is the Next Chris Davis

Anthony Cavalcante

            Everyone that plays fantasy baseball wants to be that guy that finds a diamond in the rough. That player that was overlooked by everyone, and when people realize how dumb they were to pass up on this player, it’s too late because someone else was smart enough to grab him. That player that can turn a decent team into a great team, and turn a great team into a champion. I know who this year’s version of that player is. It’s Khris Davis.

            Ironically, last year’s version of that player was also named Chris Davis. But I have reason to believe Khris will be better than Chris. First, let’s look at Chris Davis. Chris always had power. In 2012, he hit 33 homers, while missing 20 games. He also hit .270, which isn’t too bad for a power hitting first basemen. However, what Chris did last season was unbelievable. He brought his batting average up to .286, and slugged 53 home runs while driving in 138 runs. This is a player that was going undrafted in the majority of leagues. Whoever was lucky enough to grab him off of the waiver wire probably ended up making the playoffs.
            Now, you can’t realistically expect Chris to match those numbers. He obviously has the ability to play this well since he has already done it, but who’s to say he isn’t going back to his 2012 numbers? I feel like he will be somewhere in between there. I predict a .279 batting average, 45 home runs, and 116 RBI. What hurts Chris the most is his strikeouts. I expect him to strike out 191 times, which hurts his value a lot. I have him as my 5th ranked first basemen, my 20th ranked hitter, and my 45th ranked player overall. He certainly is not worth the 10.93 draft average he has. Last year he was tremendously undervalued. This year, he is being drafted way too early, and I advise you to stay away.

            Khris Davis only had 136 at bats last year, but he made the most of them. He hit 11 home runs and had 27 RBI in about a quarter of a season. Over the course of a full season, that he would’ve hit .279 with 46 home runs and 113 RBI. Those are very similar to the projection I have for Chris Davis. However, there are two huge differences that make Khris better than Chris.
The first main difference is the other stats. Khris has an edge on all of them, and those add up. Khris should out-double Chris 42-32, out-steal him 13-3, and strikeout 50 less times. That’s a 65 point swing in Khris’ direction. However, the biggest difference of all is their draft spot. Khris average draft position is 135.63, which is significantly later than Chris’ 10.93 ADP. I have Khris as the 3rd best outfielder, 4th best hitter, and 8th best player overall. He has the ability to be this good, and he could be had with a pick in around the 13th round. Khris Davis is a must-have player this season. Do not pass up on him. I guarantee you he will be the steal of the draft.


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