Wednesday, November 20, 2013


 By Michael H. Osinski
There are way too many distractions in the NFL taking you away from your Fantasy Football preparation. And damn! We are too close to the playoffs for all this mess.
The worst thing is that I have been getting caught up in it.
It started 3 weeks ago with the whole Martin-Incognito mess. Things are still coming out. Every time I hear it mentioned on the TV, I put down my Fantasy Football charts and go listen to what is ostensible 95% of the stuff I have already heard.
It's like watching "Here Comes Honey Boo Boo" or for those of you more my age "Anna Nicole."
Then we had the Ahmad Brooks hit on Drew Brees. Back in the day, I played QB and I thought it was a clean hit. No penalty. No fine. OK...we know that Brooks just got a $16k bill from the league today.
Then, MNF ends on a freak call involving the Patriots (Again?!).
Don't they know I write a Roster Management Column and a Player Ranking column for each week? I guess I am going to represent the site on as well.
I don't have time for all these distractions if I intend to do a better job than the other 65,000 people dispensing Fantasy advice on line and twitter.
So there comes a time when you look at the mess(es), distill them and come to conclusion before moving on.
OK...Martin-Incognito. Dolphin front office in big trouble. 50/50 Incognito plays (though it will not be in Miami)...he is on the wrong side of 30. Martin is made out to be soft, but strong in a politically correct sense...and then continues his career in Indy or SF (Blocked or Luck...played for Harbaugh).
The Brooks fine stands. The league has changed. I am more worried that Ray Lewis paying 1/2 his fine and Ted Bruschi paying 1/4 has just opened a Pandora's Box in which we have sanctioned future Public Offerings on Bountygate situations (Yes, I know this time was after-the-fact...but the NFL is working under the guise of protecting player safety.)
So the "Hug" on Gronk is like the old "Tuck Rule." got called correctly on the field, a lot of people got pissed off, and the league will change a couple rules so it doesn't happen again. (Rules here are "What is uncatchable?, and what is Defensive Holding and when can it be called?) Tom Brady's mom said it looked like a penalty.
Good. Done. Now that we have the distractions out of the way (at least some of them), we can concentrate on the stretch run. I have 2 teams in already (Yes, even if I lose all 3 remaining games), and 1 team that, in order to get in, has to win all 3 and needs 2 teams to lose 2 each. (Very plausible...and that's my team I whine about all the time that lost Vick(twice), Julio, DWilson, JBlackmon, and for time (Amendola, Colston and LFitz) and that used the 1st pick in the draft for Spiller. So I have some incentive.
As we have said time and again, this time of year we play our studs and look at matchups even more than earlier in the season when we are more open to chances.
I feel for the guys who own Wilson, Foles or Dalton if you are not already reasonable certain you are in the playoffs. I have Wilson on an 8-3 team and Foles on a 7-4(w/ Kaepernick as a back up), so I don't have dire issues. But with the slim reserve QB pickings, I had to scramble.
In my other league (the one in which I have to win out), one owner scooped up 4 QBs over the past 2 weeks. He saw that his main competitor carried Wilson, but no back up. I think it's bushleague, but it does kinda help me. Interesting to see who among Campbell, Glennon, and who knows he chooses.
In last week's rankings, we played mostly chalk. 1-4 were Stafford, Wilson, Brees, Manning. We were a little heavy on Rivers and a touch light on Brady and Cam.
1. Matt Stafford (DET): Not sure what Revis does with Megatron, but Burleson and Durham may have big games.
2. Drew Brees (NO): Contrary to what is said, ATL is mailing in the season on defense.
3. Eli Manning (NYG): Hunch of the week, but based on history of big yd/big td games v. lil d.
4. Peyton Manning (DEN): NE secondary problems will be a problem.
5. Tom Brady (NE): It's not like DEN stopping folks. See Alex Smith last week.
6. Colin Kaepernick (SF): With the bad WSH def, this is the week Harbaugh unleashes him.
7. Cam Newton (CAR): MIA ok v. pass, but Cam runs a bit as well.
8. Tony Romo (DAL): NYG def looks better last 4 weeks, but look who played QB in those.
9. Andrew Luck (IND): ARZ passrush scares me a bit, but Luck is Luck.
10. Carson Palmer (ARZ): After slow start, much better.
11. Matt Ryan (ATL): They have to throw a lot...even though NO good v pass.
12. Case Keenum (HOU): Gets JAX and some encouragement after last week's benching.
Just out: Griffin, Roethlisberger, McCown
Avoid: Flacco, Tannehill
We were heavy on Peterson and Bush, but Lynch, Charles, Moreno, McCoy, Gore, etc in the Top Ten
Missin a lot of skill people this week: Lynch, Gio, McCoy
1. Frank Gore (SF): WSH can't stop squat. Lots of big days in SF backfield.
2. Zac Stacy (STL): Protecting a lower-end QB. Nobody poaching TDs. 25 carries. Wow!
3. Jamal Charles (KC): V SD a lot of this will come in the passing game.
4. Andre Brown (NYG): Yes, lots of points in this game for both teams.
5. Matt Forte (CHI): Hasn't had many sub-par games.
6. Eddie Lacy (GB): Stacy, Brown, this is a weird season.
7. Adrian Peterson (MIN): This is only because of the injury.
8. Knowshon Moreno (DEN): I expect a bit pass heavy offense this week.
9. Ben Tate (HOU): A few sleepers this week.
10. Alfred Morris (WSH): I don't care who he plays. Most dependable back in the NFL now.
11. Pierre Thomas (NO): V ATL, lots of this in the passing game.
12. Chris Ivory (NYJ): Every other week...this week they win. CI gets 25 carries again.
13. Chris Johnson (TEN): Never sure where to put Jekyll n Hyde. Next week throw darts.
14. Reggie Bush (DET): What's weather report? At least Joique has a balky ankle.
15. Shane Vereen (NE): Mostly in the passing game, and looked good Monday.
16. Stevan Ridley (NE): Mostly because he gets a TD.
17. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX): Not sure what to do with him these days.
18. DeMarco Murray (DAL): Doesn't get enough carries to get higher.
19. Danny Woodhead (SD): Will be Rivers safety valve v the KC passrush.
20. Rashad Jennings (OAK): Can't argue with recent history.
21. Le'Veon Bell (PIT): Gets the ball enough to warrant more, but CLE front 7 good.
22. Steven Jackson (ATL): NO only ok v run, SJax last chance.
23. Bobby Rainey (TB): No way he gets 30 pt again!
24. Andre Ellington (ARZ): Last week was a fluke.
25. Chris Ogbonnaya (CLE): Good last week. They finally buried McGahee.
26. Ryan Mathews (SD): KC is good.
27. Donald Brown (IND): Who saw this coming? Not Trent.
28. Darren Sproles (NO): A bit inconsistent.
29. Montee Ball (DEN): Touches creeping up...TDs too.
30. DeAngelo Williams (CAR): He'd be higher with a different QB.
Just out: Stewart, Rice?, Mendenhall
Avoid: Richardon, LMiller
AJ Green, Jones, DJax, Cooper, Harvin, Tate all on bye...yikes!
Kinda all over the map last week. Too high on Hilton, Green, Harvin. Too light on Douglas, Gordon. The rest were about chalk.
1. Demaryious Thomas (DEN): Problems in the NE secondary.
2. Brandon Marshall (CHI): Yeah I know Jeffery stealing targets.
3. Vincent Jackson (TB): Another shootout at Ford Field.
4. Calvin Johnson (DET): Revis only moves him down 3 spots.
5. Andre Johnson (HOU): AJ and Keenum are best buds.
6. Victor Cruz (NYG): Dal scares nobody. Lots of salsa dancing Sunday.
7. Dez Bryant (DAL): They say they have a plan for double team.
8. Danny Amendola (NE): An educated hunch he grabs 10 and gets a TD.
9. Larry Fitzgerald (ARZ): Healthy. Reasonable matchup. Hot QB.
10. Eric Decker (DEN): Moving him up, Welker down due to concussion.
11. Jordy Nelson (GB): Boykin taking targets with Tolzien at the helm.
12. Pierre Garcon (WSH): Usually higher, but SF kept NO to 23.
13. TY Hilton (IND): ARZ passrush keeps his numbers down a bit.
14. Kendall Wright (TEN): OAK not so hot v pass. Has been solid all year.
15. Torrey Smith (BAL): Always seems just behind the best guys, but look at stats.
16. Josh Gordon (CLE): Would be higher with a different QB.
17. Antonio Brown (PIT): Two words...Joe Haden.
18. Wes Welker (DEN): Not sure of his health.
19. Marques Colston (NO): 2 weeks ago, he was on life support.
20. Aaron Dobson (NE): Has won his role and is ready to roll.
21. Jarret Boykin (GB): Tolzien loves him.
22. Alshon Jeffery (CHI): They are getting to crunch time. Marshall will get more targets.
23. Anquan Boldin (SF): Pretty good matchup...and maybe Manningham can stretch field a bit.
24. Rueben Randle (NYG): Has caught Eli's last 6 TD passes.
25. Keenan Allen (SD): The KC rush and a knee less than 100%.
26. James Jones (GB): Was always hit-n-miss, but missing a lot these days.
27. Michael Floyd (ARZ): Let's not get ahead of ourselves on him.
28. Harry Douglas (ATL): Look at that YAC number!
29. Dwayne Bowe (KC): His season didn't go up in smoke after all.
30. Cecil Shorts III (JAX): Wanna rank him higher but how?
Just out: TWilliams & Austin, KDurham & NBurleson
Avoid: Wallace, Nicks, White
Not even going to list who is out as few are rostered, let alone played.
We had Clay and Fleener "Just out" last week. Both should've been in Top 10. Cameron bombed...again.
1. Rob Gronkowski (NE): With Graham's sore foot, he's on top.
2. Jimmy Graham (NO): Even with the foot, they are using his limited snaps well.
3. Vernon Davis (SF): Really good matchup.
4. Delanie Walker (TEN): A bit of a flyer, but has TDs in 3 of last 4.
5. Julius Thomas (DEN): Ankle is bothersome.
6. Coby Fleener (IND): Recent target numbers speak for themselves.
7. Jason Witten (DAL): Giants.
8. Jordan Reed (WSH): RGIII #2 target.
9. Greg Olsen (CAR): His line Monday is becoming typical.
10. Tony Gonzalez (ATL): Healthy, and Ryan throws a lot.
11. Charles Clay (MIA): Tannehill's safety valve v CAR defense.
12. Garrett Graham (HOU): Gets JAX and Keenum is finding him.
Just out: Housler, Gates
Avoid: Cameron, HMiller
1. CAR...They are playing with the Dolphins.
2. TEN...McGloin will turn the ball over.
3. BAL...I know NYJ go 1-1-1-1-1-1-1, but lots of picks.
4. HOU...v JAX
5. KC...It's still KC.
6. SF...It's still SF.
7. ARZ...look good to me.
8. NO...sneaky good play v ATL.
9. GB...Ponder playing.
10. DET...Rookie QB plays rough rush.
Just out: CLE, DAL
Avoid: NE, DEN, ATL
I have 3 teams and stream K each week. I am usually pretty good.
However in each of the last 2 weeks, 1 the teams had a gooseegg. Vinateri. Forbath. Lucky for me I still won those games, but my luck has got to change.
Top Tier:
Gostkowski, Prater, Bailey, Hartley
Next Tier:
Folk, Succop, Akers
Last of the good ones:
Gano, Gould, Lindell
Maybe I will feel good about K next week.
Good luck to all. I am available for questions on twitter at @mhosinskiLLP

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