Friday, November 15, 2013

Fantasy Football PLAYER RANKINGS - Week 11


By Michael H. Osinski
@mhosinskiLLP
 
 
A lot of people critical of any Fantasy Sports platform (Football, Baseball, Premier League) hang the bulk of their criticism on one hook: "You fantasy guys don't care who wins the game! It's just about the stats. You don't root for any teams!"
 
Now I'd be stretching it to say I wasn't rooting for Carson Palmer to throw to my WR Larry Fitzgerald when the game dictated he just drain the clock. But that criticism is a colossal untruth.
 
Participating in Fantasy Football makes people follow the game more closely, understand matchups better than casual fans and have a better understanding of who the players are and what they can do.
 
Part of following the game more closely is looking weeks ahead for matchups you want to see. Well, this week we have one so good the NFL "flexed" it from an afternoon start to primetime. Kansas City at Denver. 
 
This is precisely the type of game we Fantasy players want to see. Legendary offense vs. the NFLs best defense so far. Peyton Manning vs. the Kansas City's pass rush.
 
You have a 9-0 KC team that has had the easiest schedule in the NFL AND a team that has faced more backup QBs than a Practice Squad. So we ask if they are for real. They lead the league in sacks. They have scored 5 TDs on defense. They don't turn the ball over. Maybe they are for real.
 
You have an 8-1 Bronco team with a QB on pace for 60 or so TDs. Future Hall of Fame QB. The best assortment of WRs in the league. Stakes are big as well. Second place finisher in the division will no doubt be the 5th seed in the playoffs and have to travel.
 
And maybe the best thing is that these teams play each other twice in a 3-game span.
 
We have spent a lot of time examining the matchup...and yes, some of it is to determine where to rank Manning, Knowshon Moreno, the KC defense, etc.
 
Manning has faced the #1 defense in the 2nd half of the season 6 times. He is 3-3. He had more picks than TDs.
 
OK...too much time on the minutia. We need to rank...
 
QB
 
Manning is usually #1. He has been pretty much matchup proof. However, the games in which he "struggled" were games against teams with ferocious pass rushes. Indy beat Denver by rushing the passer and making him hurry.
 
Manning was #1 last week, but struggled with his mobility and the SD rush. Other than his brother Eli (for whom we were overly optimistic), we were good enough with last week's rankings.
 This week...
 
1. Matt Stafford (DET): If Brady can hang 55 on them...
2. Russell Wilson (SEA): Minn not really stopping anyone & dangeRuss clicking...
3. Drew Brees (NO): I know it was the Cowboys, but he has looked that good all year.
4. Peyton Manning (DEN): Sure he'll get sacked. Maybe fumble, but I can't believe he doesn't get 300+ 3TD
5. Robert Griffin III (WSH): Philly is almost as bad vs the pass as Dallas.
6. Phil Rivers (SD): I have no trust for Miami...offense or defense.
7. Tom Brady (NE): Great game, but it was only 1 game.
8. Andrew Luck (IND): His O-line is shaky, but don't expect a repeat of last week.
9. Nick Foles (PHI): He's hot. Redskins are not.
10. Colin Kaepernik (SF): Team goes back to running QB plays this week.
11. Cam Newton (CAR): NE has had 2 weeks to prep for him.
12. Case Keenum (HOU): OAK is not so great defending the pass
 
Just out: Flacco, Glennon, Ryan
 
Try to avoid: G. Smith, Manuel, Pryor
 
No real sleeper candidates unless Eli returns to "regular" Eli form. Not what we have seen this year.
 
RB
 
Besides Spiller, we didn't whiff on anyone. Maybe Pierre Thomas. Most of that is due to the fact RBs have been pretty predictable.
 
This week...
 
1. Marshawn Lynch (SEA): Needless to say, not giving the Vikes much of a shot this week.
2. Jamaal Charles (KC): SD proved you can run on Denver and hold the ball some.
3. Knowshon Moreno (DEN): Who knew KC gives up 5 yds/carry.
4. Frank Gore (SF): Team is gonna run in NO.
5. Adrian Peterson (MIN): SEA not fearing Ponder will keep 8 in the box.
6. LeSean McCoy (PHI): That mid-season "lull" is over.
7. Andre Brown (NYG): Maybe not 30 carries again, but 22-25 still gets him over 100.
8. Eddie Lacy (GB): Whether Tolzien or Flynn, he'll get 25 touches.
9. Matt Forte (CHI): Probably more checkdowns with McCown playing.
10. Alfred Morris (WSH): Lots of throwing so his totals might be down a bit.
11. Reggie Bush (DET): Keeps his roll going.
12. Chris Ivory (NYJ): Jets top back rest of the season.
13. Stevan Ridley (NE): Tough to run against Panthers.
14. Ryan Mathews (SD): TB ran well on MIA.
15. Le'Veon Bell (PIT): They may have to throw a lot to keep up with Lions.
16. Ben Tate (HOU): Favorable matchup and should get most of the carries.
17. Chris Johnson (HOU): Jekyll and Hyde.
18. Andre Ellington (ARZ): Even with 13-15 touches, it is JAX.
19. Darren Sproles (NO): He'll catch a few to neutralize the rush.
20. Gio Bernard (CIN): Cleveland tough to run on.
21. Rashad Jennings (OAK): With DMC out, will get most of the carries.
22. Shane Vereen (NE): Lots of catches and maybe a few carries.
23. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX): ARZ tough defense to run on...
24. Danny Woodhead (SD): On pace for over 90 catches.
25. Brian Leonard (TB): Will run and pass protect so more touches than Rainey.
 
Just out: Steven Jackson, DeAngelo Williams
 
Try to avoid: any BUF RB; any MIA back; any INDY back, Ray Rice
 
WR
 
Man did we whiff on Wes Welker. Can't explain it. And this week he is going to be highly ranked again. This is mostly because of the KC rush making it necessary to get rid of the ball quickly.
 
Geez, we whiffed on Colston too.
 
This week...
 
1. Calvin Johnson (DET): Won't whiff on this one.
2. Pierre Garcon (WSH): Has 3 straight 7-catch games...it'll be 4.
3. Brandon Marshall (CHI): Like I said last week: It doesn't matter who is QB.
4. Wes Welker (DEN): Peyton will need to get rid of the ball fast.
5. Andre Johnson (HOU): Keenum throws to him in red zone.
6. DeSean Jackson (PHI): He will shred WSH.
7. Vincent Jackson (TB): ATL is mailing it in and TB is gonna win again.
8. Antonio Brown (PIT): On pace for well over 100 catches.
9. TY Hilton (IND): #1 option.
10. Demaryious Thomas (DEN): Tougher for him to get deep ball with that rush...but watch for the screen.
11. AJ Green (CIN): Draws Haden. Last time was the game Marv Jones had 4 TDs.
12. Larry Fitzgerald (ARZ): Finally...a plus matchup.
13. Keenan Allen (SD): Won't be held in check this week.
14. Torrey Smith (BAL): He'll get at least 1 deep ball with Tillman out.
15. Alshon Jeffery (CHI): Had 18 targets last week!
16. Riley Cooper (PHI): Foles trusts him.
17. Victor Cruz (NYG): What is Manning doing to this guy?
18. Jordy Nelson (GB): Odd to have him this low.
19. Josh Gordon (CLE): He is #1 option for Campbell.
20. Percy Harvin (SEA): Even on a snap count...he is playing his old team.
21. Eric Decker (DEN): Just about KC.
22. Harry Douglas (ATL): Last time vs TB had 140 & a TD.
23. Jarret Boykin (GB): Higher than most have him, but he had the most targets last week.
24. Marques Colston (NO): Came back from the dead last week.
25. Danny Amendola (NE): Healthy. Will get a lot of underneath routes.
26. Kendall Wright (TEN): He's been steady all year.
27. Rueben Randle (NYG): He is the one getting the TDs.
28. Cecil Shorts (JAX): Will probably draw Peterson.
29. Golden Tate (SEA): Has been very good as of late.
30. Santonio Holmes (NYJ): Just a hunch in his first game back.
 
Just out: Steve Smith, Roddy White, Emmanuel Sanders
 
Try to avoid: Stevie Johnson, Dwayne Bowe
 
Sleeper? Rishard Matthews
 
TE
 
We were all over the map with TE ranks. Graham was clearly not healthy. Neither were Gonzalez or Vernon Davis.
 
This week...
 
1. Rob Gronkowski (NE): Assumes Graham is not 100%.
2. Jimmy Graham (NO): Assumes Graham is not 100%.
3. Julius Thomas (DEN): For the same reason I like Welker. Quick pops.
4. Jordan Reed (WSH): A superior matchup for the rookie.
5. Vernon Davis (SF): IS healthy. He will be the primary target.
6. Jordan Cameron (CLE): Coming out of bye, that Week 9 clunker is a ways off.
7. Tim Wright (TB): ATL is lousy vs the pass.
8. Rob Housler (ARZ): JAX gets shredded by TEs
9. Antonio Gates (SD): Low numbers because they will get a lead and run run run.
10. Greg Olsen (CAR): Cam's security blanket.
11. Tony Gonzalez (ATL): Assuming he is not 100%.
12. Martellus Bennett (CHI): The Unicorn is overdue.
 
Just out: Charles Clay, Coby Fleener
 
Try to avoid: Most of the rest have poor matchups.
 
DEF
 
We were decent except that INDY debacle. Still scratching my head there.
 
1. ARZ...When comparing 2 good squads always break the tie with "who plays JAX?"
2. SEA...home vs. error prone MIN team
3. NYG...don't look now...8 sacks in 2 games...a def TD...Tolzien...perfect storm
4. CIN...Not 17-13 prediction, but not far off
5. BUFF...They call him GenoPicks.
6. CLE...Yes, a low scoring game I think.
7. HOU...OAK isn't looking so good...
8. KC...somebody finally scores 20 on them, but they get their sacks.
9. NYJ...I expect turnovers.
10. Carolina...just because they are tough...but NE has had 2 wks to prep for him
 
Just out: NE, SD, DET
 
Try to avoid the teams in those shootouts: NO, SF, CHI, PHI
 
K
 
I hate picking kickers. I had Vinateri in 2 leagues...and we saw how that ended up.
 
Tier 1: Haushka, Folk, Novak
 
Tier 2: Prater, Dawson, Succop
 
Tier 3: Gostkowski, Tucker, Hartley, Feely
 
Good luck all. I can field any lineup questions at @mhosinskiLLP.

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