Thursday, October 3, 2013

Fantasy Football Player Rankings Week 5

By Michael H. Osinski
Last we talked in terms of overreaction and QBs. My position remains that QB is the most important position for a fantasy player.
It played out again last week. Hardly any who played Manning or Brees lost. Few people who played Russell Wilson won (Though the Seahawks did.) Expect it again this week.
OK, one last look at last week. We were right on Manning, Brees, Stafford, Ryan. Whiffed on Rivers. Whiffed on Wilson. The rest of the QBs kinda stacked about where we had them. I should've had Alex Smith higher.
This week:
1. Peyton Manning. He'd be here even if wasn't getting the Cowboy defense Rivers shredded. I have given up waiting for a slip up.
2. MikeVick. See, I do learn. Alex Smith, Newton and Manning had their way with NYG. This week Vick gets his turn.
3.Matt Stafford. GB not stopping the pass so much.
4. Drew Brees. Gonna be a shoot out.
5. Aaron Rodgers. Coming off a bye week in 3rd place in the NFC North. Like he needed motivation anyway.
6. Tony Romo. You can throw a bit on Denver. He's not gonna beat them, but his numbers will look good.
7. Tom Brady. Gets one of familiar toys (Amendola) back this week.
8. Cam Newton. Not sure what to make of him coming off bye. AZ not an easy matchup.
9. Phil Rivers. I can't completely buy in, but he does get Oakland.
10. Matt Ryan. The Jets defense is pretty good.
11. Eli Manning. Maybe a reach with that O-line right now, but he gets the Eagles in a game screaming 38-35.
12. Sam Bradford. Only because it's JAX.
I'm not going 15 deep this week. I don't like the rest of the matchups. Wilson has to go to Indy. Kaepernick against Houston. Alex Smith against Titans. Cutler gets the improved NO pass defense. Luck gets SEA. Flacco gets a break with MIA, but he threw 5 picks last week. Hoyer? Thursday games are sloppy. Dalton is regressing. Schaub? I think you get the idea this week.
Don't get me wrong, a couple of those guys will have good days. At this point, however, I'm thinking the games in this last group are going to be of the lower scoring variety.
Maybe this is the week we get a bunch of good RB scores? I know I have suffered through Spiller, Ridley and Wilson (And somehow still go into Week 5 3-1). Whether Lacy's concussion, the rock-paper-scissors group in DEN, Rice, overall it has been a big mess. If you have Forte, McCoy, Bush consider yourself lucky (and probably smart).
OK. Last week we whiffed on Doug Martin. 46 yards, on 27 carries. Commentators were scrambling for record books of worst days. McFadden and Morris got hurt. Could've moved Bush, Foster and Sproles higher, but otherwise the top 10 was a reasonable effort.
So maybe we get a few more good ones this week (David Wilson?)
1. Le Sean McCoy. Not because I just traded for him. He gets NYG. Enough said.
2. Arian Foster. Gets SF, but throw out the STL game and run def is suspect.
3. Reggie Bush. Get on the bandwagon. GB not so stout.
4. Matt Forte. Because Matt is better than Lamar Miller. Lots better.
5. Jamaal Charles. A little lower than normal, but Titans are pretty good.
6. Darren Sproles. The roll continues vs. CHI. (See Bush from last week)
7. David Wilson. The time to go out on the limb is when you play PHI.
8. Frank Gore. This is more about how SF looked last week than how I feel about HOU def.
9. Ray Rice. New commitment to run after last week's debacle.
10. Bilal Powell. They are gonna run...a lot.
11. Chris Johnson. KC is a great def, but allows 5 yds per carry. CJzeroK may get 20 carries.
12. Eddie Lacy. I think he gets the ball against Lions.
13. Demarco Murray. Just thinking Dallas plays from behind so he only gets 14 carries again.
14. MoJ Drew. Further hindered by the OL move, but he is still good.
15. Knowshon Moreno. When DEN gets ahead, the rest of the R-P-S crew gets carries.
16. Ryan Mathews. Had a nice little game last week. Should do again getting OAK.
17. Gio Bernard. Not sure what NE does without Woolfork.
18. Trent Richardson. Indy probably won't pass well vs. SEA.
19. Danny Woodhead. Think Sproles light.
20. DeAngelo Williams. Tough matchup, but he is rolling.
21. Lamar Miller. Ravens tough vs. run.
22. Isaiah Pead. Gets a start vs. JAX. Woohoo!
23/24/25. Ridley/Blount/Bolden. Maybe Bellichik employs the rock-paper-scissors approach.
Almost there: Joique Bell, Jacquizz Rodgers
Left out the Spiller/FJax show because of injuries and the Thursday game. Cleveland front 7 is good.
So, since when is 6 catches over 100 yds and 2 TDs a whiff? Dez. I had him #1 last week because I expected more. AJ Green didn't help, but that was Dalton. We were right Megatron would be good, not great. Missed on Thompkins. But on the big guys, Julio, DThomas, Cruz, Welker, TSmith, we were pretty much in the neighborhood.
This week:
1. Calvin Johnson. No question this week.
2. Victor Cruz. That PHI-NYG game is gonna be 38-35. Fantasy fun!
3. DeSean Jackson. See above.
4. Randall Cobb. Back from bye. DET. All good.
5. Dez Bryant. Dallas is going to have to throw often.
6. Julio Jones. Sure it's the Jets, but this is Julio Jones.
7. Torrey Smith. Miami is vulnerable if Wake isn't back.
8. Brandon Marshall. Tough NO Def (Did I really say that?) and Cutler looks at him first, second and third.
9. Demaryious Thomas. This low only because DEN will run with a big lead.
10. AJ Green. Needs help from Dalton.
11. Andre Johnson. Would like to see him get in the end zone before moving him higher.
12. Jordy Nelson. Rodgers likes him.
13. Wes Welker. See the Thomas note.
14. Danny Amendola. When he is in, he is going to get the ball over and over.
15. Josh Gordon. BUF was good last week, but this guy can be special.
16. Larry Fitzgerald. Carolina is a top tier pass def.
17. Anquan Boldin. As long as Davis plays.
18. Marques Colston. You can pass vs. Bears.
19. Reggie Wayne. SEA Def is tough.
20. Denarious Moore. You can throw on SD def.
21. Steve Smith. AZ def seems pretty good so far.
22. Dwayne Bowe. Maybe Alex will keep throwing his way again this week.
23. Eric Decker. Just because they will get an early lead and run some.
24. Justin Blackmon. Shorts will draw cover 1, JB will benefit.
25. Hakeem Nicks. Not sure what is wrong. But, this would be the week to get well.
26. Robert Woods. Haden will be on Stevie. Woods will be free to roam.
27. Brian Hartline. Needs a bounce back.
28. Alshon Jefery. Get some looks, but mostly in garbage time.
29. Roddy White. I am almost ready to move him back up.
30. Eddie Royal. Rivers has got to throw to someone.
Just out: Julian Edelman, DeAndre Hopkins, Cecil Shorts
Don't know what to do with a few guys. James Jones. Tavon Austin. Ryan Broyles. TY Hilton. Besides that one game Jones had, these guys are not getting the ball. Austin is hurt and I am unsure how much Williams can do. I like Randle until I see him play. Tate or Rice. I can't put them into the top 30 and I feel for anyone who has to play them.
At least TE has been could, and besides Jared Cook, predictable. Funny, in August we thought the position was barren after Graham.
1. Jimmy Graham. He is on pace for 1800 yds and 24 TDs.
The space is warranted
2. Julius Thomas. You see what Gates to did last week?
3. Antonio Gates. And this week he gets OAK.
4. Jordan Cameron. These guys will just swap spots from 2-5.
OK...another space...
5. Martellus Bennett. This week is TD week.
6. Jason Witten. DEN can be had by TEs.
7. Tony Gonzalez. Put himself back in this group Sunday.
Another space...
8. Jared Cook. Because it is JAX.
9. Greg Olsen. Because AZ easiest for TEs to score against.
10. Vernon Davis. Not sure he is 100% and HOU good vs. pass.
11. Charles Clay. Gives Taannehill someone else to check down to.
12. Brandon Myers. Philly not stopping much.
Just out...Fleener, Daniels, Miller
All of this assumes Gronk back week 6.
As I have said, I stream a DEF each week. Last week I had Indy and it was what gave me the victory. 23 points...and I won by 4.
I tend to lean toward: who gets JAX. Who gets NYJ. Who gets NYG. And, secondarily which defenses have the teams with a propensity to turn the ball over: Buffalo, Cleveland.
1. Seattle. Most of the time.
2. KansasCity. Proven they belong up here.
3. SF. Reasonable matchup.
4. St. Louis. The JAX theory.
5. Buffalo. The turnover theory.
6. Atlanta. The NYJ theory.
7. Chicago. On reputation only. They have NO.
8. Carolina. Good so far, and AZ not burning the scoreboard.
9. New England. Turnover hunch.
10. Indy. Yeah, that game screams 17-14.
Good luck everyone!

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