Thursday, August 22, 2013

My Guess is Better Than Yours Fantasy Football pick or pass

Article by
Coach Mike Fabber
SportsWiseGuy.com contributor




My Guess is Better Than Yours( My Advice Brings All the Boys to the Yard) with Coach Mike Fabber Pick or Pass

“You should listen to me because I have won thousands of dollars playing fantasy sports. But you shouldn’t listen to me because I have lost thousands of dollars playing fantasy sports.”- Coach Mike Fabber

Welcome readers, because this is my first of hopefully many weekly columns for you on www.SportsWiseGuy.com, I think I should introduce myself. I am Mike Fabber; most call me “Coach”. I write My Guess is Better Than Yours( My Advice Brings All the Boys to the Yard) for SWG ( very close to swag) and co-host The Riot on The Sports Jam Network (check it out). I have played, researched, and made fantasy guides for over a decade and won thousands of dollars (lost some too) playing this amazing game. You can find me on twitter as well @coachf22 where I answer all your questions or comments. I play in about 12 to 15 leagues a season and (hopefully) win over half. Do not think what I say is gospel, I will be right sometimes and wrong the other times. I will admit it and make fun of myself for it. I love this game, so thank you for letting me be a part of it. This is the greatest game on earth and the best thing since sports were invented.

This is a pick or pass edition where I talk about some players I would pick and where I would target them. I also will talk about guys I would pass on unless they fell to a certain round. I agree with Mathew Berry in many ways and if you ever have the chance read his book “Fantasy Life”, do it. He is the Zen Master of this thing but remembers where he started and stays humble. He is awesome and proves what Steve Jobs said awhile back is true, “Here’s to the crazy ones — the misfits, the rebels, the troublemakers, the round pegs in the square holes. The ones who see things differently — they’re not fond of rules. You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them, but the only thing you can’t do is ignore them because they change things. They push this crazy human race forward, and while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius, because the ones who are crazy enough to think that they can change the world are the ones who do.” Fantasy sports are a place that even the outcasts can find a home. I, like Berry, do not believe sleepers exist anymore. “Experts” tear apart every player, I mean down to the 4th running back and 6th wide receiver on each team (most only carry 3 and 5). We know everything about everyone, so no one is a sleeper, hence why I try not to say someone is. I just believe they’re some guys worth picking and some I will pass on. What we all should want is a return in our investment, a little Wall Street talk. If you pick a guy in the first round you want him to pay dividends like a first rounder, easy enough right! Your first 4-6 picks should be upsides with little down, you need those steady consistent points. Be smart and safe early and go for it later on when the misses do not hurt as much. So enough of this filler mess let’s get to it. The round and selection is from a standard 12 team 16 round league. Without further ado, Pick or Pass time.


Pick:

Steven Jackson, RB ATL: Average draft position (ADP) is 2nd round 4th pick (2, 4). I would pick him as high as 1st round 9th pick (1, 9). The biggest knock on this guy was touchdowns but this is not the Rams anymore. Atlanta loves to run in the red zone and Jackson loves to break tackles in the red zone. This is a recipe for great success, less carries, better offense, a real QB and WR’s, means fewer tolls on the body and more scoring chances. Expect a 1000 yard rusher with double digit TD’s.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI: ADP (3, 3) but I would grab him (2, 6). He has been a steady WR with no QB, now put him with an offensive minded coach, and a QB who got over 4,000 yards with Oakland. This could be a huge year for him. Expect more targets and more catches, which normally equals more yards and more TD’s.

Lamar Miller, RB MIA: ADP (3, 8) but I would grab him in (2, 10). He will be the man in Miami and with a legit passing game should see some fronts he can find holes in. Add that with his speed and this kid is scary good. I would like to try to make him my third back but I don’t want to lose him waiting. Few teams have majority 1 back carriers, this looks like one of those teams. More chances mean more opportunity.

Chris Ivory, RB NYJ: ADP (6, 1) he should go at (5, 1). He will be the big play back for the Jets and with the QB’s they have he will be getting the ball enough to be a great flex or third back player. We all know Rex and he wants to run, run, and run. So grab him up a little earlier and you could find a great flex back.

Mike Wallace, WR MIA: ADP (6, 5) should be (5, 3). He is the fastest they have, the best hands they have, and the big play maker they have. This adds up to him being the man there and in an offense that was used to make the pass game the biggest weapon. 2 out of the last 3 years he has over 1,000 yards receiving while being in a run often style. This might be a breakout year for this WR and you could grab him in the 5th or 6th, wow.

Anquan Boldin, WR SF: ADP (7, 6) I would grab him at (6, 1). He might be the best hands while being such a tough receiver. The weapons are dropping like flies and he is an experienced guy with a ring on his finger (not the wedding kind). V. Davis can’t catch every pass, so get the next best thing for them, Boldin is it.


Russell Wilson, QB SEA: ADP (8, 1) but I like winning so I would pick him (6, 9). Why do we refuse to see the greatness in this guy? He tied the throwing TD mark (26) by Peyton Manning and only threw 10 INT’s. He did this without Percy Harvin so that’s not a crazy loss for him. He still has a good line and a great RB to take the pressure off. He is amazing, so let’s appreciate it.

Lance Moore, WR NO: ADP (9, 3) but I go get him at (7, 8). Well his coach is back and QB is still Drew Brees (Best in the game). He plays opposite a guy who demands a double and with a TE that demands a double so that leaves him being the only single coverage. I expect a big year from this offense and him. More consistent and more TD chances.

Emmanuel Sanders, Wr PIT: ADP (10, 2) see him worth an (8, 9). He has his chance to shine now in Haley’s system. Big Ben will throw him the ball and his hands look great this offseason. Plus I think PIT might lose some games so they will be throwing trying to come back. This WR will run across the middle and beat you with his legs, very dangerous. Could put up top tier numbers and picked that late, this is a great game.


Pass: 

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB JAC: ADP (2, 6) but I would pass till (5, 10). This team will face more 8 men fronts than most and has a QB that might not be able to beat Tebow in a QB challenge. He also has a lot of yards under his belt and couldn’t get healthy last year. Add all that up and it tells us we don’t want to have to depend on this guy. The only way I want him on my team is if he is a flex option or trade bait for a sucker.

Reggie Bush, RB DET: ADP (2, 9) but I’m waiting till (3, 10). I am not saying he won’t have a good year and put some good games together but worthy of a second rounder, I think not. I don’t want to have to depend on this player to have to do that much for me. I like the system and everything with it but 1,000 is not a near given with this guy and I would take CJ, Ridley, or Jackson over this guy in a heartbeat.

Jimmy Graham, TE NO: ADP (2, 10) I cannot take a TE that early but I would at (5, 1). Stop freaking out for a second and let me explain. He is a great TE and the best in the game prolly but not worth a 2nd round pick. He got around 12 pts a game last year, which is great for that position but not for the 2nd round. How can I justify that when there is still work load backs left to draft or stud QB’s or elite WR’s. I get the pts differential but I will not put a TE higher than the 3 core spots.

Frank Gore, RB SF: ADP (2, 12) but I would snatch him at (5, 3). Nagging injuries, a running QB, and a lot of miles has made me not like Gore as a top 2 RB. I only trust him to be a flex especially with some young backs making some noise in the preseason. I will not say he is done but I will say it’s the later years.

DeMarco Murray, RB DAL: ADP (3, 4) should be (5, 7). He hasn’t played a whole year being a feature back since he was a junior in college. He plays in a pass happy system with plenty of targets and is not consistent even when playing. He has never lived up to the hype and I barely would like him in my flex spot. Then add the fact he has a couple other backs competing for carries with him. This is an equation that equals doom for this back.

Darren McFadden, RB OAK: ADP (3, 11) I would grab him in the (6, 11). Let’s pretend he hasn’t been injured pretty much every year in the NFL. He starts a contract year with a new system and an unproven QB. I believe he will see a stacked box until OAK proves they can pass the ball. Just a risk I do not want to have to deal with this year.

Eddie Lacy, RB GB: ADP (4, 3) should be around (5, 9). He is a rookie that’s starting banged up with another rookie breathing down his back for the ball. He also has some guys in place already that are making a case to get some carries. I love his upside but not enough to have him as a top 2 RB on my team. A great system but not sure he will get the chance to impact the game the way a 4th rounder should.

Rob Gronkowski, TE NE: ADP (5, 2) if we lived in the present it would be (7, 12). He is coming back from multiple surgeries due to multiple injuries. He also is nowhere near game shape and is 2 weeks from the season. While this new team is building chemistry and learning each other, he is not. Not doubting Brady or him but this is one toll that might take more than a month or so to cash. I would stir clear to later.


Remember you can reach me on twitter @coachf22 or email me at coachfabber@aol.com, I love to hear from you and answer any questions. Thanks again.

2 comments:

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