Sunday, June 30, 2013

Fantasy Football Auction Draft What You Mockin About Willis?

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The die hard and anxious fantasy football fanatics are busy preparing via the mock draft.  I have participated in a half dozen mocks on either Yahoo or ESPN and thought it would be interesting to compare the results.  Sure, you can go to those sites and find out what the average auctions values have been.  Those stats are of immense value and should be looked at prior to your auction.  I wanted to take a closer look at the actual numbers from my auctions and see what, if any, trends were occurring.  Here is a look inside the numbers.
Overall, from early June until now, the prices have come down a little.  Basically you could put the QB's into one of four groups.  The pricey group is going to run you between $40-45.  Only Brees and Rodgers have made that group.  
Four QB's have consistently went from $25-$35. Brady is the top of that price range and Russell Wilson at the bottom with Peyton and Cam in between.  This kind of surprises me.  Brady's value could be dropping with the amount of uncertainty surrounding his receiving corps.  I am also surprised that Peyton was only averaging $26. With the 3 studs he has to throw to, I thought that cost would be higher.  I was also quite surprised to see how expensive Cam and Wilson are, especially when you look at the next wave.
At ($13-18) you find Ryan, Stafford, Luck, Kap, and RG3.  Stafford, threw for the second most yards last season.  If he keeps the INT's down this year, he could easily be a top 5 QB and for $32 less than Rodgers and even $12 less than Wilson.  That's good value folks.  
The last grouping is your low cost QB's.  The most expensive is Romo at $9 and from there it quickly drops all the way down to a $1.  You could grab Bradford, Dalton, Rivers, Freeman, Tannehill, Schaub, Cutler, Locker and Palmer all for a buck.  Hey, why not grab 3 of them and play the weekly matchups.  Just imagine being able to save $45 by not drafting Rodgers and dumping that cash into your receiving and running back groups.  
Running Backs
Money is certainly getting thrown at the running backs.  AP is in a class of his own.  His average has been $71. It might be money well spent if he runs for the 2500 yards he is predicting.  
After Peterson, there are 9 RB's who are consistently pulling down $51-61.  I don't think that's a real surprise.  It seems almost every drafter wants one top 10 RB.  
After this top tier is gone, only 6 backs are averaging $34-41 (S.Jax, Forte, Ridley, MJD, CJ2K and Gore).  I don't know that you could be too happy with one of these guys as your RB1.  I think if they are your RB2, than you are doing real well.  
In the $20-27 range we have a mix of injury prone and potential breakouts (Bush, Murray, McFadden, Wilson, Ivory, Miller, Ball, and Bell).  If you were to grab one player from each of those first 3 tiers you would need to budget about $115.
Some interesting price tags of the remaining backs include Ivory $13, Sproles $18, Bradshaw $10, Lacy $12 and the Law Firm at $9.  Those are very reasonable prices and Sproles would have been even lower, as would have Bradshaw if it wasn't for one high bid that skewed the average.  
Some interesting single digit backs include Andre Brown $5, Mark Ingram $3, Daryl Richardson $2, Fred Jackson $2, Ben Tate $4, and Ronnie Hillman $1.  These are players who are either very capable back ups or already sitting in the number one role.  Stock up on these boys.  They could win you a week or two.
Wide Receivers
Once again we find one player with considerable separation from the pack, Megatron.  His average price is $59.  
Four more receivers are averaging between $43-48(AJ, Dez, Marshall, and Julio).  
Seven WR's fall in the $34-39 range.  One surprise is Vincent Jackson.  Most sites have him ranked inside the top 10 yet he is only going for an average of $29.  He is coming off as the 13th most expensive, thus there is a bit of value there.  
After VJax there are only 6 more WR's that will run you above $20.  So in total, we have only 19 WR's going for above $20.  What does that mean?  That means you can get a great set of receivers for considerable savings.  
Here are some names that will cost you between $10-19: Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith, Torrey Smith, Eric Decker, Antonio Brown, Steve Johnson, Mike Wallace, James Jones and Cecil Shorts. So if you miss out on the Megatron bidding war, I wouldn't feel too bad.  You could have 3 receivers for less than the cost of Megatron.  And, if you had 3 of the guys from that last group, you are doing pretty darn good.  But wait, there's more!
Here are a slew of guys you can get for single digits: Mike Williams $6, Greg Jennings $9, Jeremy Maclin $4, TY Hilton $7, Anquan Boldin $2, Kendall Wright $1 and Danario Alexander $7.  The list of cheap receivers is long.  As a matter of fact, there will be some beauties left to your waiver wire when your draft finishes.  
Tight Ends
Same trend again.  Jimmy Graham is averaging $41.  Then there is a huge drop to Gronk ($20), Gonzalez ($15) and Witten ($14).  Hernandez ($14) is dropping like a rock as his impending jail time will slightly hurt his fantasy production.  
Pitta hits the double digit mark at $10 and then it drops right off.  The rest of the pack averages $6 or less and only 4 of the remaining average $5-6.  Thus grabbing a couple of cheap tight ends and once again playing the matchups could work well for you.  
You could nab Cook, Myers and Fred Davis for a whopping total of $5.  The worst part of your fantasy season might be not having enough bench spots for all the good values that are left out there.  
Kickers and Defenses
Thank goodness people are not wasting money on kickers.  They are all averaging $1.  I did have one person out bid me on Matt Bryant, but the rest of the bidding in all my auctions was $1/kicker.  
All but four Defenses are averaging $1.  Seattle ($4), San Francisco ($3), Houston and Chicago ($2) are the only big money D's.  I am a firm believer in playing the matchups on D.  Get yourself one or two $1 D's.  Play the matchups.  If you only spend $1 not only do you have more money to spend on your skilled positions, but you won't have a problem dropping the D from week to week as you only have $1 invested in them.  
It seems that the masses must feel like there are a lot of good quarterbacks this year as having only 2 going for over $40 is a change from recent years.  However, knowing that there are a lot of good QB's I am curious to see if the average costs for the QB's will continue to drop.  It would make sense.  
It has been a while since 10 running backs all pulled down over $50.  I think the buyers want to ensure they get a back who is going to get the ball.  These RB's are getting harder and harder to find.  Someone is going to pick up a low priced back (or two) that will become a steal and a half (Hillman, Fred Jackson, Ingram, Randle, etc).  
There remains a ton of value at WR.  After the top 20 WR's you are still drafting WR1 talent for less than $20. If you play in a league that starts 3 WR's, your WR3 will cost you less than $10 and could be a player like Cecil Shorts or TY Hilton.  I could live with having one of those guys as my WR3.  
At TE getting Graham may give you a decided edge at that position but it comes with a price.  Gronk's cost is half what it was a month ago.  If you grab Gronk now he will cost you around $20.  If you would have drafted a month ago, or of you draft in August, he may once again cost you $40.  Gronk is talented enough to lead the TE's in yards and TD's at the end of the year even if he misses a few games.  Thus, if you can nab him for $20 that is a steal.  He recently went for $11 in an experts auction.  That is grand larceny right there.  
Once again, take a look at average auction prices before you draft.  Average is helpful, but it is averaging the whole year.  Aaron Hernandez and even Gronk were getting big dollars before, they are not now.  Thus, their average is skewed.  You are better off to try a few mocks prior to your draft date as that will give you a more accurate picture of the value being placed on players in that time span.  I am assuming when RG3 gets the clean bill of health you will see his value go up. How can Russell Wilson cost twice as much and Cam Newton almost 3 times as much?  Your draft is approaching.  Do the mocks and note the trends.  Remember, much like everything else in life, timing is everything.  

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