Friday, December 7, 2012

NFL picks by @MoreThanFantasy

NFL Week 14 Bets
 
Week 13 Results: 1-2
 
Season [ATS]: 12-11
 
Survivor Pick: To date, I’ve used DET, CIN, DAL, ATL, PIT, NYJ, MIN, GB, HOU, BAL, DEN, CLE and CAR. I actually changed my pick at the last minute last week from Carolina to Chicago. Needless to say, neither team pulled out the win, so I am officially out of my pool now. Only 5 remain – oh so close! I like the Colts, Steelers and Buccaneers this week. Take one of those if you have them still.
Colts -5
Luck’s TD:INT ratio splits are 9:3 at home vs. 8:13 away. Last week he threw 4 TD’s in Detroit further boosting that stat. The kid is good; everybody knows that. But he plays extremely well in the comfort of Indy, with his fans, and the dome atmosphere. The Titans have been in shambles all year and have showed no signs of turning it on at this point. I think this is a high scoring game, where luck goes over 300 yards yet again and Vic Ballard has his true breakout game as the lone starting RB. Wayne, Avery & Hilton are turning out to be quite the receiving core for Luck.
Bears -2.5
This isn’t just another divisional game for Chicago. They are in a dead heat with Green Bay for 1st place in the NFC North. Minnesota is emotionally devastated by the placing of Percy Harvin on IR. Peterson is the only thing keeping them afloat. I have no doubts that Alien Peterson will get his, but Ponder and his “receiving” core are pitiful. The Vikings are 5-1 at home (1-5 away) but they haven’t beaten a good team since September. Marshall breaks 100 yards yet again and the Bears win by double digits.
Falcons -3
Forget who’s playing here. Look at the records. 11-1 vs. 3-9 – how do you get a 3 point spread? I live in Charlotte and I can assure you there is no home-field advantage in terms of their crowd. Sure, it’s a division matchup so the Panthers may come out to play, but they just lost to the Chiefs. The Chiefs! Don’t get me wrong, the Falcons are as sketchy as an 11-1 team gets, but after last week, I don’t think the Panthers have what it takes to win games right now. LaFell is looking doubtfull which kills their passing attack, which has improved in parallel with LaFell’s emergence. At worst, I see this game pushing. Don’t be afraid to buy the ½ point if you get it at 3½.
Quick Notes: The total in the Saints @ Giants is 53 – take the under now. If Jonathan Joseph doesn’t suit up for the Texans, I like the Patriots -3 at home. I like the Cardinals +10 which seems to be a trap game (now that the almight Skelton is back) and the over which is currently at 35 points. The Seahawks are losing corners left and right, and the Cardinals still have that guy names Larry.
Bonus Pick: I use Bovada.lv to place my bets and they offer attractive teasers each week. I have hit three out of four 4-game teasers the past 4 weeks (tweet @ me for proof). This week, my teaser is +6pts (+265) with Bears -3, Colts -5, 49ers -10 and Seahawks -10 giving you final lines of CHI +3, IND +1, SF -4 and SEA -4. A 6.5 point teaser pays out +240 and the 7 point pays out +200
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