Sunday, November 25, 2012

WEEK 12 SPREAD PICKS By: Richard Donohue (@floworcrash)

By: Richard Donohue (@floworcrash)

Thanksgiving is that wonderful time of year where you stuff your face and take a nap. You become a human version of Garfield, minus the voice over and annoying owner. You go over the top, and to celebrate, I’m going all in on Week 12! I need a little extra gravy with my mashed potatoes so instead of the usual three picks, I’m giving you SIX.

I already gave you my picks for Turkey Day:

Since that article was posted, this line has moved to + 3. If you couldn’t lock in the half point, that’s OK, I still like this line.

This line it now – 7. This change is tougher then the WSH /DAL move. Now a TD late is a push. Either way, I’d stick with New England.

Let’s move to the weekend set:

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS – 3 vs. Buffalo Bills:

The Colts got bombed on out at the Razor last week. Luck put up nice numbers outside of the 3 INTs, which killed him. Literally. Two pick sixes usually spell the end for your teams chances.
I look at this game as the perfect chance for Indy to bounce back. The Bills spent a lot of money on their defense and it looks worse then it did last year. They are currently ranked 27th in the league, giving up and average of 29.9 points a game. If you isolate their pass defensive numbers, it’s a bit better, but I still think Indy gets back in the win column. Last time the Colts were home Andrew Luck WENT OFF, totaling 433 and 2 TDs. That was against Miami, another AFC East team most would consider to have a superior defensive unit compared to Buffalo. The Bills may keep it close enough, but I see this one ending with the Colts up by at least a touchdown.

Denver Broncos  - 10 ½ at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS:

If you have been reading these articles you know I love me some home dog action. This is the Chiefs though. What can I say about them that hasn’t already been said? 10 ½ is a huge line, but I’m confident Peyton and the boys will keep the ball rolling. Cincinnati destroyed KC last week, and the Broncos have a much more dynamic passing attack. Denver’s defense is better too. This one is all Denver.

CLEVELAND BROWNS +1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers:

HOME DOG! You know I had to get that in! I really didn’t go with this game because of that though. One point is basically a pick ‘em anyway. I went Browns for two reasons. One, they gave the Cowboys all they could handle down in Dallas, and I believe that momentum will carry over to this old school rivalry game. Two, Pittsburgh will be starting Charlie Batch. Big Ben is out with a shoulder injury and now Leftwich is down with a rib injury. Let’s be honest, it’s not like Byron Leftwich set the world on fire last week anyway. The bottom line is that Batch cannot run the same style of Offense Roethlisberger can. This will lead to plenty of 3 and outs, short fields for Cleveland, and eventually a fatigued Pittsburgh Steeler defense. This will be enough for the Browns.

No comments:

Post a Comment