Friday, November 9, 2012

Week 10 games by the spread by @MoreThanFantasy

NFL Week 10 Bets
Week 9 Results: 3-1
Season [ATS]: 9-5
Survivor Pick: To date, I’ve used DET, CIN, DAL, ATL, PIT, NYJ, MIN, GB and HOU respectively each week. This week I’m locking in Baltimore against the Raiders. Safe players may want to go with New England coming off a bye week. Baltimore has a tough schedule the rest of the way and I don’t want to miss out on them this year.
Jets +6
The Jets are coming off a bye. The Jets have been nothing short of bi-polar this year. They’ve hung in games with the Texans and the Patriots, and they’ve been blown out by the 49ers, Dolphins and Steelers. They also blew out the 6-3 Colts that everyone loves right now. So, which NY team will show up? I repeat: the Jets are coming off a bye. Rex Ryan’s job is on the line. Being defensive minded, you can guarantee he will try to stop two things: Marshawn Lynch and the deep ball. Those two things are all that Seattle has. Wilson throws a great one, don’t get me wrong, but he’s not a quick-slant-pre-snap-read kind of guy yet. He’s made a killing off of long balls to Tate and Rice. DRC should take Rice out of the equation and forcing Wilson to dink-and-dunk should slow the Seahawks down. Even if they pull the win out at home (as they usually do) the Jets will keep the game a barnburner.
Detroit -2
Have you seen Minnesota lately? They are falling apart. Well, that AP guy is still decent. But Ponder looks like he took pointers rookie Blaine Gabbert the way he’s been slinging the ball. With Harvin looking doubtful for the game, you need to pounce on this now. I’m wasting time just writing about it. The Lions have assembled a running game again and Stafford is starting to throw the ball normally again. After failing to cover the first 4 games of the year, the Lions have covered their last 4. This clearly shows the public perception failing to accurately judge the Lions’ value. Ride it while it lasts; they will soon be given more points to cover each game.
Steelers -11.5
The Chiefs are 1-7 this year and 2-5 ATS. Of those seven losses, six of them have been by double digits. Exclude the Oakland game where they only lost by 10, they have lost by 16+ in five out of seven. They are bad. Anytime you give an NFL team double digits points, you have good reason to doubt the bet. I understand. But re-read those statistics. Kansas City gives up 30 points per game. Try and convince yourself that the Steelers, with Ben playing at an elite level and Redman/Dwyer running all over teams, won’t put up 30+ points. Then ask yourself: Can the Chiefs, who average 16 points per game, put up 20 points against a defense ranked #1 in the league against the pass? Again, giving double digits to any team in the NFL comes with risk. I believe the risk here is minimized beyond belief.
Quick Notes: Chicago’s record as home favorite ATS: 2-2. Houston’s record as an underdog: N/A, as in they haven’t been an underdog yet. Wonder why? There’s no way I bet on the Eagles again this week. I’ve done it too many times. They are 1-6-1 ATS this year. But there’s something inside of me that can’t pick against them. Please bet on the Cowboys. I can’t put it in my write-up for reasons I just discussed, but they are awful. I think the Patriots are going to blow out the Bills, but for reasons discussed in the Steelers pick, I refrained from putting them in. And if you’re into riding hot teams, look no further than the Jacked Gerbal’s Buccaneers. Yeah, that nickname doesn’t work either. Tampa Bay is playing great football right now and they are 6-2 ATS.

 Aaron Marcotte

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