Friday, November 2, 2012

NFL Week 9 games by the spread by @MoreThanFantasy

Last Week: 1-2
 
Season: 6-4
 
A bear trap. That’s what Week 9 looks like. There are 5 road favorites, all with spreads between 2.5-3.5 points. Detroit and Chicago look very enticing, but I won’t be recommending either.
Survivor Pick: To date, I’ve used DET, CIN, DAL, ATL, PIT, NYJ, MIN and GB respectively each week. This week I’m playing it safe again with the Texans. I also like Seattle at home if you’re daring.
Washington -3
The Redskins are coming off a 15-point loss to the Steelers on the road. The game had no turnovers and only 7 punts total. The Redskins just failed to put the ball in the endzone on a couple of nice drives. The Panthers took a lead into the 4th quarter against the Bears and allowed them to drive down the field for a win. Cam has been nothing short of a disappointment this year, and though the Redskins secondary is laughable, Cam doesn’t have anyone other than Steve Smith to throw to, and LaFell is out with a concussion. The Skins are only 1-2 at home with losses to the Bengals and Falcons. They’ve played a tough schedule so far and RG3 has led them to a 3-5 record. He makes it 4-5 this week.
Pittsburgh +3.5
I can’t believe that this line will stay larger than a field goal but grab it while you can. Big Ben and the Black & Yellow are still underrated in the public’s perception (possibly due to their poor attire last week). Ben is slinging the ball better than he has in his entire career. But Eli’s no slouch either. I think this game remains competitive throughout. The Giants haven’t blown any team out (excluding the Panthers on TNF). They just aren’t that type of team this year. The pass rush hasn’t been as elite as it has in the past and the secondary is 26th overall against the pass. If Dwyer suits up for his 3rd straight start, look for him to open up the passing game for Ben, Brown and Wallace. Even if the Giants pull it off, I see it being by a field goal. Look at it this way: if the Giants are up 10 going into the 4th, Big Ben will surely lead the Steelers to a garbage time TD making it a 3 point game. Sure looks like a lock to me.
Tampa Bay +1
Tampa Bay has been on fire lately. Their offense is clicking both on the ground and through the air. For those of you who like statistics, the Bucs are 3-0 as away dogs and the Raiders are 0-2 as home favorites. The Raiders just barely snuck by the Jags at home and the Buccos beat the Vikings by 19 away from home. It feels like each team is trending in different directions. Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 6th in the league in rushing yards per game. Couple that with McFadden’s struggles and the Raiders are relying on Carson Palmer to take this game over. I’d much rather put my money on the improving young-gun Josh Freeman.
Seattle -4
Anyone notice Seattle’s road struggles? If so, you’ve noticed how good they are at home. Inside the dome in front of a sold-out crowd allows them to play ball freely. Ponder has shown his true colors lately. He’s still a young quarterback that makes mistakes. Sure, AP will get his yards on the ground, but they will have to abandon it eventually after Seattle puts some early points on the board. Minnesota just lost their top CB Chris Cook which should make it easier for Wilson to stretch the field. His deep ball has been a thing of beauty this year.
Brought to you by Aaron Marcotte (@MoreThanFantasy) of TradeDebate.com
Check out the blog: marcottesfantasy.tumblr.com

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