Friday, November 30, 2012

NFL week 13 picks by @MoreThanFantasy

NFL Week 13 Bets
 
Week 11 Results: 2-1
 
Week 12 Results: Too much Turkey
 
Season [ATS]: 11-9
 
Survivor Pick: To date, I’ve used DET, CIN, DAL, ATL, PIT, NYJ, MIN, GB, HOU, BAL, DEN and CLE respectively each week. This week I’m going with Carolina. Kansas City is a mess and Carolina is better than their record suggests.
Panthers -3
My survivor pick of the week. Cam looked great last week against the Eagles. Ok, so that last sentence has very little meaning. But the Chiefs aren’t any better than the Eagles. Arrowhead stadium used to be a tough place to play, but now the Chiefs are 1-10 with little to no hope of winning another game. With a line this small you have to take the hot team over a one-win team. Another stat to ease your conscious: Carolina is 4-1 ATS away from home.
Jaguars +6
Putting aside the fact that the Jags are 100x better with Henne over Gabbert, the Jags are surprisingly 5-0 ATS as away dogs this year. If you’ve ever seen the Jags stadium during home games you can understand why they play much better in other team’s stadiums. Six points in way too much to give in a game between two bad teams whose seasons are over.
Texans -5
Houston is a much better team than Tennessee – plain and simple. There hasn’t been a game this year where they haven’t come to play. They beat the Titans by 24 on their home field and I don’t expect this game to be much closer. The line won’t stay this small so jump on it while you can. Houston is out to prove something this year and they won’t let a division rival hand them their 2nd loss. The return of Ben Tate could help alleviate some of the pressure of Foster as well, allowing the Texans to dominate the game on the ground.
Quick Notes: The Bengals are a hot team right now and are -1.5 against the Chargers. San Diego likes to show up once and a while, but the Bengals are the better bet here. Speaking of hot teams – how are the Buccaneers getting 7 points against the Broncos? Oh yeah, Peyton Manning. I will likely bet Tampa Bay in this game but I won’t endorse the pick. I don’t like the half point, just off principle, but the Patriots -7.5 is laughable the way they have been playing. I’ll be taking the alternative line (-14.5) which will probably only pay out +180.

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