Thursday, November 15, 2012

NFL WEEK 11 SPREAD PICKS By Richard Donohue (@floworcrash)

Thanks to the double stink bombs the New York teams laid last week, I went 1-2, which puts me at 7 – 5 for the season. Tough week. Shockingly, The Jets offensive performance got even worse after the bye. The real surprise for me was the Giants. So basically Big Blue doesn’t take a bye week, but a Bye Month? Another November swoon. It’s surprising Eli and Coughlin haven’t straightened this trend out by now. It is what it is, as they say.

Let’s take a look at Week 11. Only one line really stuck out to me right away, the rest seem to be a bit treacherous, but I think we can navigate it. I normally give three picks a week, but I’m going to throw in some bonuses.

Cincinnati Bengals – 3 ½ at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS:

This line jumped out at me right away. The Bengals are a mediocre team at best, but when their passing attack gets hot, it’s very exciting stuff. Last week against the Giants, they were up 14 before you could blink, and the rout was on. Thanks to some bad weather, and a Big Ben injury, the Chiefs gave the Steelers all they could handle on Monday night.

The bottom line here is that the Bengals aren’t as great as they looked last week, and the Chiefs won’t look that good again. Look for Ben Jarvis Green – Ellis to take advantage of the Chiefs inconsistent run defense. This will open up their explosive passing attack. Kansas City can pound the ball with Jamaal Charles but inexplicably haven’t been in recent weeks. If it weren’t for the weather and mounting media criticism against lame-duck coach Romeo Crennel, Charles probably wouldn’t have had last week’s stats. Bengals aren’t great, but they are better then 3 ½, run with them.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 15 ½ at HOUSTON TEXANS:

Simply put, this spread is simply too big for an NFL division game. The Texans should win this game, but I think 15 ½ may be a bit too much to cover. The Jaguars are surprisingly 4 – 0 against the spread on the road. The Texans are running away with the AFC South, and just came off an emotional win against The Bears at Soldier Field in primetime. They also blew out the Jags in their building on Week 2. This one screams trap game to me.

DETRIOT LIONS + 3 ½ vs. Green Bay Packers:

Nothing like a little home dog action to give your parlay a little spice. The Lions welcome the Pack to Detroit with the number one ranked passing attack in the NFL. We all know Rodgers and the Packers are no slouches in that department either, despite their injuries. Expect a high flying shootout in this one, and it will be close. I love the ½ point here; that may be the difference in the end. If you want to get fancy, throw on the OVER here too, which is currently at 51 ½.

Bonus Picks:

I promised a couple of quick hitting Bonus Picks, here you go:

As I stated earlier, take the OVER on DET vs. GB, at 51 ½
If you have been reading this article over the past few weeks, you know I love Tampa Bay. I still do, for all the same reasons. Take them –1 against the Panthers.
Take the UNDER on NYJ vs. STL at 38 ½. This will either be low scoring by both teams, or a shutout by the Rams.

There you have it. Week 11 is a bit tricky but hopefully we all can make a little extra cash before Turkey Day. Good luck!

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