Friday, October 19, 2012

Week 7 NFL picks by @MoreThanFantasy

NFL Week 7 Bets
 
The biggest bye week of the season is here. For those in survivor pools, this makes for a tough week. To date, I’ve used DET, CIN, DAL, ATL, PIT and NYJ respectively each week. This week I’m going with my first spread pick: the Minnesota Vikings.
Vikings -6
The Vikes are legit. Gone are the days of Culpepper to Moss (sigh), but the dominating rushing threat of AP lives on. By now you’ve heard of Arizona’s O-Line troubles. They have allowed an NFL-high 23 sacks and the Vikings have this jorts-wearing guy named Jared Allen. He’s aiming to put Skelton in the hospital next to his beat up buddy Kolb. Ponder has been impressive in his sophomore campaign so far, and he’s utilizing Harvin as often as he can. I think Skelton continues to struggle in his 3rd game of the year (2nd start) and the Vikes win easily.
Cowboys -2
I normally don’t take road favorites in the NFL (see below). I also don’t normally bet against teams coming off a bye. So, why am I taking this game you ask? Great question. When playing the game of “what have you done for me lately?” you realize that the Panther’s aren’t quite living up to the hype. Whether it’s due to Cam’s inability to move the ball through the air, D-Will and J-Stew’s inability to gain more than 2 ypc or the line’s inability to block, the Panther’s don’t have much going for them. I’m leaning towards their failure to execute rather than poor gameplanning. I don’t think the Panthers have an answer for Dez Bryant, who is getting better weekly, and Austin and Witten are still dangerous threats in the passing game. Felix is playing for an increased role if/when Murray returns and you can bet that he will be doing everything he can to solidify himself as a change-of-pace back.
Steelers -2.5
Pittsburgh is 0-3 on the road and has only covered ATS 1 time in 5 games. What a way to start off an analysis of why I’m betting on them. These two statistics give Vegas more reason to sway the other way. Pittsburgh is still undervalued in the public’s eye, yet they remain a top-tier team. Sure, their rushing game is lacking, but they just lost to the terrible Titan’s and are hungry for revenge. Roethlisberger “hurt” his ankle in practice yesterday which seemingly is good news. He loves the tough guy image and seems to play better when he’s “hurt”. The Law Firm is trending the wrong way in terms of hype and fantasy value; expect this to continue this week. Dalton to Green is a scary connection, but if the Steelers can keep it in check they will do just fine.
Raiders -4
If you’re into atrocious quarterbacking as well as under-performing running games, here’s a matchup for you! We have two of the worst offenses in the league facing two of the worst defenses in the league. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, the Raiders have something they don’t – talent. Disregard that McFadden is only averaging 50 yds per game and 3.2 ypc. Jacksonville gives up 160 yds per game. Two of those five games were against Indy and Cincy – nowhere near elite rushing teams. Oakland on the other hand, has a solid run defense but a poor pass defense. Who’s more lethal: Blaine Gabbert or Maurice Jones-Drew (last year’s rushing champ & consistent force through the tackles)? I may have answered that for you, but it’s a point to drill home. Yes, the Jags are coming off a bye week but I don’t think they are ready to beat anyone other than Indy and KC.
For all of the ups and downs the Jets have had this year, I’m not 100% confident they will cover this week. My minor gambling addiction will tempt me to put money on them at +11 but I don’t like A) betting against Brady at home or B) having faith in Sanchez in a shootout. The Giants -6 is another game to consider, but beware of the RG3. The Giants are a much better team, but I’m afraid the Giants pass rush will force RG3 into his comfort zone – running the ball. I hope these picks assist you this week in your quest to be the best gambler you can be.
Written by Aaron Marcotte (@MoreThanFantasy) of TradeDebate.com
Check out the blog: marcottesfantasy.tumblr.com 

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