Friday, October 12, 2012

NFL Picks week 6 Written by Aaron Marcotte

Week 6 is filled with a tough slate of evenly-matched opponents. In my survivor league, I have already used Atlanta which is my only lock of the week. My bets below stray away from the “elite” teams and focus more on the perceptual value of mediocre teams. Use these picks wisely and remember, betting against the spread is close to a 50/50 chance.
The picks:

Jets -3
I’m sure the last thing on your mind is putting money on the Jets. There’s the QB controversy, the plodding Shonn Greene who has broken an outstanding 1 tackle on an 80 touches (outstanding for the wrong reason) and a defense that took a major blow, losing Revis for the year. On the other side, Luck and the Colts just upset the defending champs in a game that had the making of a blowout at halftime.  The Jets are playing at home where, historically, they are significantly better. The Colts are overvalued in the public eye because of last week. Sanchez isn’t good, but he isn’t as bad as the statistics show… I’m really saying this with a straight face. I watched the game last week and his receivers are making way too many mistakes and dropping too many balls. Stephen Hill should help him stretch the field in his long awaited return. If you’re not that confident, take them SU at -125.

Bills +4.5
The public’s perception of the Bills has never been lower. Ok, maybe it has, but it’s nearing rock bottom. Arizona has gotten fairly lucky this year and still has the worst O-line in the league. Remember Mario Williams? Call me crazy, but I think this is his breakout week. The Cards have a weak offense and a strong defense. Cromarte should lock down Stevie Johnson and keep this a low scoring game, which bodes well for the Bills chances of covering.
 
Dolphins -3.5
Let’s start off with a little fun fact: neither team has been a favorite this year. Anybody watching the Rams game (unfortunately I was) when Amendola went down saw how putrid their offense looked. In fact, it started even before he went down. The Rams current “strength” is their running game. Miami’s defensive strength is their run defense. Do you trust Bradford with absolutely no talent on the outside to blow this game out of the water? Neither do I. Tannehill seems to get better week by week and Hartline just won’t go away. I think the Rams pass rush will force Tannehill out of the pocket, where most people hoped he do most of his damage. He’s a very athletic quarterback and I think he gets a chance to show it this week.

Stay Away
Often times, not betting on a game seems to be the hardest decision you must make come Sunday. For me, this is the case with the Cowboys @ Ravens this week. The Ravens have established themselves as one of the premier teams in the league, although their defense hasn’t been as intimidating this year as it has been historically. The Ravens are currently favored by 3.5 points at home. Normally I’d take this line without a problem, but Dallas is coming off a bye. Garrett hasn’t been around long enough to build a reputation coming off a bye week, but I tend to favor those teams generally. Not only do they get an extra week to prepare for the matchup, but they also get an extra week of rest. When you have injury prone stars like Austin and Bryant, you want them as fresh as possible. If you must bet on this game, go with the Boys.
Written by Aaron Marcotte (@MoreThanFantasy) of TradeDebate.com
For more articles, check out my blog: http://marcottesfantasy.tumblr.com/

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