Friday, August 21, 2015

Our Thoughts on Week 1’s Running Back Group

By http://www.rotoguys.com/

The month of July is coming to a close as fantasy owners prepare themselves for another exciting season ofFanDuel for the NFL. . This is also a perfect time of the summer to start preparing for the upcoming week 1 of the fantasy season now that FanDuel has released the first week of the regular season with salaries.
In our first article we took a look at the quarterback position on FanDuel. This time around we want to take a look at the running back position. In full season leagues, the running back position might be the number one option to build your lineup around.
As the first week’s salaries are out for all of the NFL running backs on FanDuel the question we like to ask ourselves is which player has the salary to match his fantasy output. We also like to look for players who will produce that many others don’t expect them to. This frees up some salary as we are still working with a $60,000 budget for the entire roster.
Atop the list for week 1 is Minnesota Vikings star running back Adrian Peterson at $9,200 followed by Arian Foster at $9,000. Peterson missed all but one game last season after photos surfaced leading to his season suspension. Foster on the other hand posted at least 15 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games
Here is what our first thoughts on week 1’s running back group.
Worth Every Penny:
Adrian Peterson ($9,200): While it is sometimes hard to use a player that brings a price tag as high as Peterson’s. That being said, Peterson looks to have a favorable matchup against a San Francisco 49ers team that features a new head coach as well as losing multiple players from the defensive side of the ball. This could be a big season for not only Peterson but for the Minnesota Vikings entire offense.
Darren McFadden ($6,600): McFadden has an opportunity to put up some big time fantasy numbers behind the top offensive line of the Dallas Cowboys. Along with McFadden, teammate Joseph Randle could be a solid fantasy play as well in week 1 against the New York Giants.
Other running backs making this list include Giovani Bernard, Lamar Miller, Eddie Lacy, Jonathan Stewart and Justin Forsett.
Over Priced Out of the Gate:
Arian Foster ($9,000): You can’t really blame Foster for the high price tag but his week one matchup against a very good Kansas City Chiefs makes him a big risk week 1. While we love his dual threat capabilities he could be too expensive to chance it week 1 as we aren’t quite sure what we might see from the entire Houston Texans offense.
Other running backs making this list include Jamaal Charles, Tre Mason, Andre Ellington, Matt Forte and DeMarco Murray.
Potential Fantasy Bargains Week 1:
C.J. Spiller ($6,300): Spiller now moves on from Buffalo to join one of the top offenses in all of football. While we expect Mark Ingram to get most of the red zone touches we can see Drew Brees and Sean Payton working Spiller into the offense much like they did a few seasons back with Darren Sproles.
Other running backs making this list include Carlos Hyde and Charles Sims.
Deep Fantasy Sleeper Potential Week 1:
Ameer Abdullah ($5,900): While all eyes will be glued to the two first round running backs Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley. Abudllah might be that back that surprises many playing for a Detroit Lions team that can move the ball through the air. If he can stay healthy he could win this starting job from the start.
Other running backs making this list include Montee Ball, Denard Robinson and Duke Johnson.
Just Not Sure What To Think:
Marshawn Lynch ($8,600): Don’t think we don’t love some Beast Mode because we do. We just don’t like his matchup in week 1 against a very solid St. Louis Rams defense. On the other hand the Seattle Seahawks passing attack should be much improved taking some of the stacked boxes out of the equation for an easier day running.
Other running backs to make this list include C.J. Anderson, LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Hill and Frank Gore.

Fantasy Football: Drafting Rookies

By http://www.rotoguys.com/

Every year, a fresh crop of talent is brought into the league. They go from college studs to NFL newbies in a matter of about 6 months. Some guys never miss a beat and become NFL stars. Some never find their footing and turn into duds. While you may not care too much about any team’s rookies but your own, they can have a huge impact on your fantasy team. So listen up!
Everyone wants to get their hands on the newest stud to hit the gridiron. Sometimes people will even spend their first round pick on the highest touted rookie that season (not recommended)! But you’re better than that – why else would you be reading this article? So let’s quickly run down the keys to grabbing some rookies that could win your NFL fantasy leagues this fall without sacrificing the rest of your team.

Draft with your head and not your heart
* We all have players we love, whether they’re your favorite team’s first round pick or the best player from your favorite college. But that doesn’t always make them a great fantasy pick. Leave your emotions at home on draft day.
Don’t fall into a run
* There will be a couple times where one pick will spark someone else to make a similar pick, all of the sudden you realize 5 WRs have been drafted in a row! Don’t let this alter your plan though, when you see 4 or 5 hyped up rookies go off the board, stick to your guns and follow the game plan. There will be plenty of rookies left.
Look for value
* Rookies are the most unproven players in the draft. That being said, some will still cost you a pretty penny – doesn’t that sound crazy to you? Don’t buy in to the hype and overpay for someone who hasn’t played an NFL snap yet. Look for value in the later rounds with some guys who may have been overlooked but will play a big role on their new team
Here are a few NFL rookies to watch for fantasy football in 2016:
*Stud to Pay For: Melvin Gordon
* Gordon is someone you will see come off the board fairly quickly this fall. He was a monster for Wisconsin in college and was a 1st round pick in the spring. He steps into an effective San Diego offense with a veteran QB in Rivers and no clear incumbent at RB. He will get plenty of opportunity to claim the lead role and rack up yards & scores for the Chargers
Too Expensive: Todd Gurley
* Gurley is a classic example of an overhyped fantasy player. He is coming off of major ACL surgery and stepping into an offense that hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. Gurley will cost you an early pick for someone who might not even play much this year – the Rams aren’t likely to be in contention and have no real reason to force the issue with Gurley. Spend this pick elsewhere. I think that could be great, maybe as soon as next year, but in a redraft league, you should pass on him in 2016.
Sleeper to Look For: Tyler Lockett
* The Kansas State product has athleticism for days. On a Seahawks team with very little top tier talent at the WR position, Lockett could break out. He would give them an explosive pass catcher who can be defenders on a streak or on a screen. If your league counts kick and/or punt return yardage, Locket should shoot up your draft board. He was a force on returns at KSU and looks as if he’s been given the keys to Seattle’s return game as well.

Monday, August 10, 2015

How To Win At Fantasy Football in 2015 Without Listening To Anyone



Dash Davis
SportsWiseGuy.com
Copyright © 2015
Dash Davis All Rights Reserved 

INTRODUCTION

 Let’s get the typical BS out of the way. I’ve been playing competitive fantasy football for close to twenty years. I play in mostly big money entry leagues and a few hometown leagues with my buddies. I plan on playing close to ten leagues every year. Here’s the thing, I’ve always done well in all the leagues I play in. I look at playing fantasy football as an investment that I’m making in myself. I put a lot of time into the process and we all know that time is valuable. It’s really become a way for me to make income on the side and I play to make money and win. A really strange thing happened to me last season. I did absolutely awful! Out of ten leagues, I only made the playoffs in two. I was close to making the playoffs in a few other leagues, but close is for losers and that’s what I was. I knew why I was losing, because the teams that I had sucked, but I was more interested in the how? How did I get to where I was? I went over my preseason notes that I make on each team and each draft worthy player to try to gain some insight on what went wrong. Hell, I even stayed up at night going over my drafting strategy over and over again. I then talked to my other big money league competitors who did well and searched for what I was missing. My conclusion is that I listened to too many damn people! Everyone now has a blog, podcast, twitter account, and a forum where they give their “expert opinion” on fantasy football. In the dog days of July and August when there isn’t anything going on in sports, I start my planning for the upcoming season. This year I read, listened to, and saw everything that was put out there. From the “Wait on Quarterback Approach,” to “Streaming Defenses,” and “Don’t worry about tight ends, you can always grab one,” I realized it’s all bullshit. If anyone can predict the future, they would be rich, and probably not be writing about fantasy football. Some of my serious players subscribe to the idea of only “listening to one ‘guy’ “ for their information. The problem with that is if they are wrong, then you are going to be wrong too. And let’s not forget, no one knows the future so don’t pretend anyone does. So what’s the solution? I’m glad you are reading this, because I’m here to help. I’m going to show you a foolproof way to succeed at playing fantasy football without listening to anyone. It’s not a hard plan to put into place and I’ll show you the steps and rules needed to win.

 KNOW YOUR LEAGUE RULES

 This should be common sense by now. Learn the point system in which your league is setup as and go from there. Learn how many players you have to start at each position and plan accordingly. If you play in a ppr (points per reception) league, the players you want to target may change from a standard league. You may want to value certain positions over others. Starting thinking about the differences. How many points are getting per passing touchdown? This is a huge one in my book. If you are in a league that is rewarding six points for every touchdown pass, I want an elite quarterback who is consistently going to throw for a lot of scores. Forget, the “streaming quarterback advice,” or “I want to play the matchups.” Good luck with those ideas, a quarterback who throws a lot of touchdowns is valuable. If you play in a league where touchdown passes are worth four points, you may alter your thinking a bit. You still want touchdowns obviously, but you don’t have to rely only on big time passers. *** We’ll get way more into strategy in our next section. I’m just throwing these ideas out there to have you start re-thinking all the bullshit you’ve been fed over the recent years. So many of these new “drafting strategies” have become common-place in today’s coverage and there really isn’t much evidence to back it up. Remember, this is supposed to be a fun and easy process, let’s not overthink things before we even dive into the real talk!

 QUARTERBACK

 There are two strategies when it comes to drafting your quarterbacks. Draft an elite guy (Rodgers, Luck, Manning) Wait and draft two or three guys you really like later (Stafford, Brady, Brees, etc) The position is an easy one to not listen to anyone about. You probably know most teams quarterbacks and what they’re capable of. Either you want to play it safe and get one of the big-time elite guys, or slow play and grab two or three guys that you like this season. It’s that simple. Don’t listen to the “stream your quarterback” guys and certainly don’t listen to the ”sleeper guy to target,” (Jay Cutler, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick) it’s not going to end well for you. Pick a QB that is capable of throwing multiple touchdowns every single game they play in. Sound difficult? It’s really not. Find a pass heavy team that has wide receivers that can score and make big plays. Your QB also shouldn’t feature a great running back on their team either. Not every team will have both these combinations and the inconsistency is what we want other owners to deal with, not us. Big Offense without a great defense. Playmaking Wide Receivers. Doesn’t have a great running game. Proven history of throwing for a lot of touchdowns. 16 games - 2 TD’s per game = 32 Touchdowns. We want that average, at least.


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