Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Top 5 Reasons to Play Fair Market Fantasy for the 2013 NFL Playoffs

Have you heard?

Our friends at Fair Market Fantasy have cash contests for the NFL playoffs allowing you to pick a lineup of players with a $100,000 salary cap, and prices for the players determined by market demand.

They will also have a free contest with $1,000 prize where you will pick up to 6 NFL teams in the playoffs with fantasy points based on games won.


We checked it out, and here are our Top 5 Reasons the Playoffs are most fun over at Fair Market Fantasy

  • You can choose a lineup for the whole playoffs

  • Player prices are set by market demand

  • You can trade players back to market at any time

  • You get $20k in reinforcements (additional salary cap) after first rounds

  • Winning team player prices will rise, players on losing teams prices will drop, and owners will need to manage their lineup under the available salary cap to win

  • If you missed the initial All Playoffs Lineup in early Jan, you can still play contests for individual post-season games

So go set your lineup and have fun!

*This post has been sponsored by Fair Market Fantasy. All opinions expressed are my own.

Sunday, December 29, 2013

The End Of The Road For Asomugha

Considered one of the best cornerbacks of the last decade, Nnamdi Asomugha signed one day contract with the Oakland Raiders to announce his retirement from the NFL after 11 seasons.
After eight seasons in Oakland, Asomugha decided to join a team with more possibilities to win a championship ring and arrived in 2011 to Philadelphia. The Eagles were one of the favorites in the NFC to play at Super Bowl XLVI, according to Sports Betting Dime.
He signed a five year, 60 million contract with the Eagles, but injuries and a different system of play made him one of the biggest disappointments. Asomugha was known for his skills in man to man coverage; however, the Eagles used him in zone defense.
He was released after two years, leaving Philadelphia win only four interceptions in 32 games. Before the 2013 season, the ex-cornerback of California agreed to one year with the San Francisco 49ers, but he played only in three games, one as a starter, and was waived in November to make room for defensive back Eric Wright.
Many believed that he benefited from the way the rivals played against Oakland, which in that time was one of the worst defenses against the run and they didn’t need to throw the ball. The opposite teams took the lead in several games and preferred to run to control the game and got the win.
A first-round draft pick in 2003, Asomugha arrived to Oakland one year after the Raiders lost Super Bowl XXXVII, so he played his entire career with teams without winning record. From 2003 to 2010, the silver and black only won 50 games and lost 91; meanwhile the Eagles finished 8-8 in 2011 and 4-12 in 2012.
The Raiders signed Asomugha to a three year 45.3 million contract in 2009, making him the NFL's highest paid player. He was selected three times to the Pro Bowl and finished with 15 interceptions, one touchdown and 355 tackles.
He will be remembered as the cornerback less challenged by opposing quarterbacks when he was with the Raiders, but also as one of the bests who never played in a Playoff game.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

PLAYER RANKINGS - CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK

By Michael H. Osinski
@mhosinskiLLP


Championship Week. Six months of research, mock drafts, matchup analysis. Not much commentary. Just Rankings...

Next week we will recap the Finals and give Fantasy awards. For now, just go be win.


QB

I can't remember a season in which there were so many unresolved QB issues this late in the Fantasy Season. Sure, occasionally teams had to go to the waiver wire to replace a QB being rested in the last week, but one of the best QBs in the league may or may not play (Rodgers) while another who was the toast of Fantasy in 2012 (RGIII) is not playing. RGIII's replacement (Kirk Cousins) is a hot replacement target because he may have the year's best matchup (Dallas...we should spell it without a "D" these days). Usually, teams playing for a Championship are riding Brees.

Because of the numbers put up by Rodgers when he played, McCown when he played and by guys not drafted but picked from the wire (Foles, Palmer, Rivers) a few Championship contending teams are dealing with QB issues. (A team in the league I am NOT in the Championship rosters Cutler, McCown and Rodgers). I know of 1 team playing for Championship with Palmer...they hopefully are choosing a replacement for Sunday.

And, a couple of the replacement QBs have better matchups than the ones on rosters. Kirk Cousins and Ryan Fitzpatrick should be played this week if you got to your Championship with Roethlisberger, Flacco or maybe even Andrew Luck. Hell, Brady vs. BAL is no picnic. Choose wisely.

One of my choices is Foles v. Kaepernick. Hate those close ones.

1. Phil Rivers (SD): Gets OAK. Needs a win to keep playoff hopes alive. Only caveat is getting big early lead and then all Ryan Mathews.
2. Peyton Manning (DEN): After last week's pedestrian outing, expect a barrage against a team mailing it in.
3. Nick Foles (PHI): CHI defense really hasn't been. This figures to be a shoot out.
4. Jay Cutler (CHI): Like I said, this figures to be a shootout. And, Cutler is better than Cassell.
5. Russell Wilson (SEA): ARZ was torched by FitzMagic last week. Good to have DangeRuss this week.
6. Colin Kaepernick (SF): ATL defense not so good and CK and team peaking at right time.
7. Andy Dalton (CIN): I can't believe this...but look at who he is playing.
8. Drew Brees (NO): Weird having him this low, but on the road...vs about the best defense.
9. Cam Newton (CAR): Weird feeling about this game...like Cam runs for 100+ 2 TDs and throws for enough to win.
10.Matt Stafford (DET): Not careful with the ball lately, but he's home again and needs to win to save his coach.
11. Tony Romo (DAL): Haven't given up on him yet...and it IS WSH.
12. Ben Roesthlisberger (PIT): GB has won a couple in a row, but they really are not stopping anyone.

Try to avoid: Manning, Palmer, Cassell, Glennon

Possible Sleeper: Kirk Cousins (Dallas is going to get shelled)

RB

Last week was weird. One guy scores 5 TDs. Brown scores 2 pts. Moreno 5. It goes on. Boom or bust. Few RBs had "regular" weeks. That Bronco game killed a few teams. I was lucky.

The best route to a Championship is a good predictable running game. Grade them correctly, fewer mistakes.

1. LeSean McCoy (PHI): I know Briggs may be back, but my Daughter could run for 100+ against that defense.
2. Jamaal Charles (KC): This year's Fantasy MVP is clicking on all cylinders. Neutral matchup, but no matter.
3. Eddie Lacy (GB): Assumes Rodgers doesn't play. PIT won't stop Fantasy ROY.
4. Zac Stacy (STL): He will no doubt get 25 carries again.
5. Adrian Peterson (MIN): Coach says he is playing. Hedging having him this low in case of re-injury.
6. Marshawn Lynch (SEA): Never worry about who he plays. He's at home. Last year the score up there was like 100-0.
7. Knowshon Moreno (DEN): May share 4th Q clock killing carries w/Ball but will still have nice game.
8. Matt Forte (CHI): Good matchup, but I think this game goes through the air mostly.
9. Alfred Morris (WSH): The most dependable RB in the NFL who doesn't get enough TD chances.
10. DeMarco Murray (DAL): Why does he not get the ball more? I ask this every week.
11. Ryan Mathews, (SD): Maybe a bit high, but he is going to kill the clock starting in Q3.
12. Frank Gore (SF): Just like Ryan, SF gets big early lead and grinds the end out.
13. Reggie Bush (DET): Team needs to win. Hope they are disciplined enough to get RB his 20 touches.
14. Gio Bernard (CIN): Am I the only one thinking this game goes 42-14 Bengals?
15. Jordan Todman (JAX): 4.4 wheels and opportunity. Had 153 from scrimmage last week.
16. Bobby Rainey (TB): Based on sheer volume. Thinking 25 carries 95 yds and a TD.
17.Le'Veon Bell (PIT): Ben is going to have to pass to have a shot at winning.
18. Andre Brown (NYG): Not sure what last week was about, but that won't happen again.
19. Rashad Jennings (OAK): SD not great defense. He'll catch a lot of passes as OAK will be playing from behind.
20. Shane Vereen (NE): Drank the Kool Aid before last week's game. Not getting fooled twice.
21. Dennis Johnson (HOU): Thinking this is mostly in the passing game as HOU will need to play catch up.
22. Fred Jackson (BUF): Lewis playing means lots of running.
23. CJ Spiller (BUF): Lewis playing means lots of running.
24. BJGE (CIN): Teah 42-14ish means the Law Firm rolls in Q4.
25. DeAngelo Williams (CAR): You can run on NO and he is not sharing with Stewart.

Just out: Rice, Ivory, DBrown

Try to avoid: Mendenhall, Thomas/Miller

Possible Sleeper: Montee Ball

WR

1. Josh Gordon (CLE): Jets secondary is actually tertiary. He goes deep twice for scores.
2. Calvin Johnson (DET): Drops were bothersome Monday. Expect a bunch of points without drops this week.
3. AJ Green (CIN): Dalton, Gio, BJGE, AJ...they all have big days.
4. Andre Johnson (HOU): Do you have any idea how many times Schaub is going to throw to keep up? 20 targets?
5. Pierre Garcon (WSH): He is playing Dallas. Expect at least a repeat of last week.
6. Brandon Marshall (CHI): He is better than Greg Jennings by a bit.
7. Dez Bryant (DAL): Just throw him the damn ball.
8. Antonio Brown (PIT): After scoring big in bad matchups, he gets a good one.
9. Alshon Jeffery (CHI): Lots of points in this game.
10. DeSean Jackson (PHI): Lots of points in this game.
11. Demaryious Thomas (DEN): This low because I think they spend the last Q 1/2 running.
12. Jordy Nelson (GB): Expecting Flynn under center. If Rodgers move him to 8.
13. Julian Edelman (NE): Brady's most reliable target.
14. Keenan Allen (SD): #1 option for Rivers keeps his rookie roll going.
15. Vincent Jackson (TB): Should be good for a long TD.
16. Eric Decker (DEN): Assumes no Welker to share targets.
17. Marques Colston (NO): Brees relies on him in tough games. This is one of them.
18. Larry Fitzgerald (ARZ): Gonna have trouble with the Legion of Boom.
19. Michael Crabtree (SF): Those who stashed him were waiting for this matchup.
20. Kendall Wright (TEN): Been steady all year...and 34 targets last 3 weeks.
21. Mike Wallace (MIA): Just a hunch he and Ryan click on a long one.
22. Doug Baldwin (SEA): He has been a reasonably hot WR.
23. Greg Jennings (MIN): Man does he love Matt Cassell.
24. Jarret Boykin (GB): Flynn figured out he is usually open.
25. Riley Cooper (PHI): Like I said, lots of points in this game.

Just out: Streater, Patterson

Try to avoid: Bowe, Nicks

Possible Sleeper: Rueben Randle

TE

1. Julius Thomas (DEN): Peyton gets him into the EZ a couple times this week.
2. Jimmy Graham (NO): Last week's egg and this week's opponent (CAR) should give a bit of pause.
3. Vernon Davis (SF): He is a TD machine.
4. Delanie Walker (TEN): Great matchup. He is on a bit of a hot streak and the QB trusts him.
5. Zach Miller (SEA): ARZ last in defending TEs and they rarely disappoint.
6. Jason Witten (DAL): Hasn't been as consistent in targets this year, but tough to stay away.
7. Dennis Pitta (BAL): NE has had trouble w/TEs lately and Flacco depends on this guy.
8. Tony Gonzalez (ATL): Figures to be the only guy open.
9. Jordan Cameron (CLE): Assumes he plays.
10. Garrett Graham (HOU): Assumes he plays.
11. Charles Clay (MIA): Wait til next yr when Tannehill can throw to him and Dustin.
12. Greg Olsen (CAR): Has been good, though matchup is not.

Just out: Ertz, Eifert

Try to avoid: Fleener, HMiller

Possible Sleeper: Marcedes Lewis

DEF

The Fantasy Championship is no time to get too cute with defenses...or is it?

I always stream. This year at some point I landed hot defenses and rode CAR-CAR-ARZ in my 3 leagues. Because of matchups, I am dumping them all this week. I know the CAR-NO game is in CAR, but I am not taking chances. Last time ARZ visited SEA the score was about 100-0. Not taking that chance.

OK, if you have SEA, SF or KC you are playing them. They are 1-3.

#4 might be STL (I picked them up in 2 leagues). They are vicious at home with 18 sacks and 7 picks in the last 4 home games. TB isn't going to do much to keep that from happening again.

CIN is good at home and gets MIN, so they are #5.

The NYG are a turnover machine, so this week DET is #6.

The NYJ (even at home) turn the ball over. So, CLE is #7.

BUF sacks people and picks off passes better than most. Tannehill spends a lot of time on his back and is usually good for at least 1 pick, so #8.

Dark horse...DET is careless with the ball, so NYG #9.

Schaub playing and throwing a lot...so his 3 picks will make DEN #10.

Just out: CAR, NO

Try to avoid: OAK, CHI

Possible Sleeper: MIA gets Thad Lewis.

K

I'm sticking with the same theory I have always had. Kickers in domes. Think Justin Tucker Monday.

If you can't get a dome guy, take the California Ks...Nick Novak. I have Novak in one Championship game and deciding whether to keep Henery in the other.

Roster accordingly.

Good luck in your Championship games. I am available for questions at @mhosinskiLLP.

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

ROSTER MANAGEMENT - Championship Week

By Michael H. Osinski
@mhosinskiLLP



So I read today that over 11,000 Fantasy Playoff Semi-finals were decided Monday night by Justin Tucker. That's crazy. But at this time of the season, crazy things happen. (I survived playing against Tucker The Foot, but it was a lot closer than it needed to be. Thanks Mr. Vereen!) I hate that part of Fantasy Football.

Six months of mock drafts, draft charts, match up analysis, being completely pissed that Mike Vick is hurt...again. This is Championship Week. This is where it is all supposed to come together. The knowledge that comes from all that time spent makes you feel as if you have a few answers. Yeah, right.

I play 3 leagues. I am in the Championship Game in 2. My #4 seed caught fire and beat the #1 seed. I love the irony of Nick Foles spearheading the team whose original QB was Vick. And, my #1 seed juggernaut survived the 6-FG MNF game. (Again, no thanks to Shane Vereen.)

Point is that we do all this research, mock drafting and analysis to try and avoid being beat simply because a kicker has a career night. Figure that. If you knew that in June, would you have done the research. (Yes) But, those who lost Monday night will tell you...all the research in the world may not work. You gotta make your own luck.

If you are this far, you have had a bit of luck. Question is...do you have any more? Can you make any more.

Let's find out.

QB

Most Championship teams are set here. I have Russell Wilson (I know...not a good matchup) and a choice between Foles and Kaepernick. But, some folks have Rodgers, Cutler or had McCown. Others lost Vick early and have been streaming since. The favorite to win the Championship in the league I am stuck in the consolation bracket had Rodgers McCown and Cutler. (He also has Jamaal Charles)

We still have no definitive word on Rodgers. We will probably get it by Thursday. McCown is gone. Cutler is going to play if you got him.

Also, if you are not quite sold on your QB1 or you don't like your matchup, you actually have some options.

(I assume Tannehill, Alex Smith are not available)

Kirk Cousins. He has the best matchup of the week and is available all over. I actually would start him over Roethlisberger, Flacco and maybe even Brady.

If he gets snapped up, it's riskier, but you can roll the dice on Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Try to avoid pretty much anyone else.

RB

Not much here. Generally, even the good teams have 1 great back and then 2-3-4 guys on the bench you shuttle through based on matchups. Stick to that theory as there is not much on the wire any better.

Peterson and/or Gerhart will play this week so Matt Asiata is not a good play. I'd stay away from any back in Cleveland. Last week conventional wisdom said Ogbonnaya would be a good play. Sunday afternnon, some guy from the Texans practice squad named Baker was the Browns leading scorer. What this week...the comeback of McGahee?  Jennings is back so Reece is no one to play.

A guy worth a look is Jordan Todman. 15 points last week. 4.4 wheels. If MJD is still out, he could actually be a better bet than the guys on your bench. He is sitting on my bench, but I can't pull the trigger...yet. Stay tuned. Tate, Spiller, Vereen, Rainey. Ouch.

WR

WR3 is usually a revolving door for most teams. I played Ace Sanders over Harry Douglas last week. (It worked.)

Point here is that there are guys available who might be better than the other guys on your bench, and if they get a good matchup could be better than whomever your current WR3 is.

Cecil Shorts is on IR, so the aforementioned Ace Sanders is a great choice. I may play him again. It makes Mike Brown viable as well.

If Rodgers is back, Jarret Boykin is a great play. After last week, even with Flynn he is viable.

I know Larry Fitzgerald and Victor Cruz had concussions, but try to avoid ARZ WRs as they play SEA. While avoiding NYG WRs is probably wise as well, something about Rueben Randle screams..."pick me..pick me."

Andre Caldwell is only relevant if Wes Welker is out again.

Da'Rick, Lavon and whoever else the Colts added this week need to be left alone.

Don't fall for the Marvin Jones hype. He played all those snaps, but the Bungles were down 3 TDs early so they were passing every down.

TE

Most Championship eligible teams are set at TE as well. One of my teams is not one of them. I have Julius Thomas and Jordan Reed on the Foles team. But, on the good team, I had Jordan Reed. He won't see the field again this year. I picked up Delanie Walker in time for him to suffer a concussion as well. Mixed results so far.

He is better now and has another great matchup. JAX is 2nd worst team vs TEs. Get him if you need someone, have a lousy TE or just wanna play a hunch.

The only other TEs I can suggest are Tim Wright and Zac Ertz. And, if you are adding them (instead of Brandon Myers or one of the Bengals) good luck. Those with a penchant for risk, Marcedes Lewis has TDs in 3 straight games.

DEF

For most of the years I have played Fantasy, I have streamed defenses based on matchups. Sometimes, like this year, I stumbled onto hot teams I kept for a while (this year: CAR-CAR-ARZ). Because CAR plays NO (even at home) I am not risking a Championship on them and am finding a streaming option. Because ARZ lost to SEA about 100-0 last year, I am dumping them as well.

Based on matchups, look to STL, TENN and BUFF. If they are taken, Cleveland is not a bad matchup, even without Haden. C'mon, it's the Jets!

Just don't get too cute. If you have KC, BAL, SF, SEA...play them. I am only dumping CAR & ARZ based on history.

Looks like I'll get STL-STL-BUFF.

K

The Justin Tucker night has to reinforce what I have said all along...play Ks who will be in domes. Roster accordingly.

Good luck. Championships are rare. I am available for questions at @mhosinskiLLP

Friday, December 13, 2013

Michael Crabtree- How healthy is he for your Fantasy League?

 By @rotoguys
 rotoguys.com.

Michael Crabtree made a splash in his 2013 debut, offering hope he can quickly regain top form after an offseason Achilles injury. He marked his return to the San Francisco 49ers lineup with two catches for 68 yards, including a 60-yard catch-and-run in the second half of a 23-13 win over the St. Louis Rams. The San Francisco 49ers with his help has beaten the Seattle Seahawks crippling their win streak. In fantasy football leagues, Crabtree represents huge value potential on some crucial moments. Can he find his stride quickly enough to help in the fantasy playoffs?
Background history: Fifth-year wide receiver who made a triumphant debut with two catches for 68 yards in a Week 13 win over the St. Louis Rams. As the 49ers' leading receiver a season ago, he missed the team's first 11 games after tearing his Achilles tendon in OTAs. Off to a slow start, he started to figure out the NFL games last season after first struggling to live up to the fans expectations as the No. 10 overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft.He had a monster two-year career at Texas Tech, catching 227 passes for 3,067 yards and 40 touchdowns in 2007-'08. Michael has been more of a force in the intermediate game and red-zone during his pro career, as he's averaged 13.0 yards per catch in five seasons.

2013 stats: 2 rec., 4 targets, 68 yards, 0 TDs in 1 game.

Some numbers:  Have you seen his catches, targets and receiving yards rise in each of his first four seasons. Hauled in 85 catches for 1,105 yards and nine touchdowns last season as the 49ers made a run to the Super Bowl. For everyone’s rejoice he established  a connection with the QB Colin Kaepernick as the season went on, finishing with 11 touchdown grabs in his last 12 games, including the postseason. He got 55 targets in his last four regular-season games, becoming the focal point of the 49ers' attack. Dynamic has since changed with veteran Anquan Boldin now in the fold as the team's No. 2 wide receiver.
His strengths: Michael Crabtree is a proven producer at a time of the fantasy season when few such options exist. His tear late in the 2012 season bodes well for the final four games, assuming he continues to get healthy and earn more snaps. Two catches, including a 60-yarder in the second half, and four targets in his first action of the season are a good testament to his improving condition.
Risk factors: Michael Crabtree must prove that he is healthy enough to take on the field, and get into a rhythm in the 49ers' offense along with Boldin and Vernon Davis both in the fold and the 49ers leaning more on the run, it remains to be seen how much work Crabtree will get over his final four games. With San Francisco in the playoff hunt, there's an outside chance a spot is locked up early and starters get rested in Week 17.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

PLAYER RANKINGS - Week 15 (Playoff Edition

by Michael H. Osinski
@mhosinskiLLP


Most Fantasy players know the worst thing is to have multiple star players injured. There is no bigger impediment to getting in the playoffs. And, if it happens early in the year, it can make for a long season.

In one league in which I pay, I lost Mike Vick, Julio Jones, Danny Amendola, David Wilson and a couple others before Week 5. I did have time to scramble and somehow ended up just short of the playoffs. It certainly wasn't the season I envisioned after the draft in August. I kinda took it as a challenge and ran with it. But, for most folks who had similar misfortune, it was a long season.

But I was thinking today, it would be worse to have a good season, get in the playoffs...and THEN lose your best player. That is exactly what has happened to owners of Adrian Peterson or Rob Gronkowski.

I play 3 leagues and the guys who owned Peterson ALL made the playoffs. Couldn't find a stat to support it, but I'll bet most owners of Peterson and Gronk are in the playoffs.

And think about it...the waiver wire is a bare cupboard right now. Are you going to trust your playoff run on Toby Gerhart? At least TE has become a deep position, but playing Tim Wright instead of Gronk is still not a recipe for victory.

Of course the owners facing teams that had Peterson or Gronk go down are thanking their lucky stars. There is opportunity to advance.

All I can say is, be glad you made the playoffs and hope for a bit of luck...or realize your bench is a deep one and that guy you stashed a couple weeks ago has a chance to give you a chance.


QB

Funny how a QB not playing is having the biggest impact on the NFC Playoff run. Aaron Rodgers not playing not only hurts the Packers, this week it hurts the Eagles as the Packers play Dallas with Matt Flynn. The Lions and Bears are no doubt pretty happy with this as well. With Rodgers back from here on, I'd expect the Packers to finish 9-6-1, meaning both the Bears and Lions would need to win out as well. No such pressure without Rodgers.

So no Rodgers this week. Cutler still out. RGIII being held hostage so Shanahan can get fired and collect his $7M.

Last week we had a colossal whiff on Stafford. Of course, we didn't know he was going to play in a blizzard. We were obviously light on McCown, but most of the rest (besides Luck's bounceback) were in line.

1. Peyton Manning (DEN): Be assured this Manning brother will take advantage of the matchup.
2. Nick Foles (PHI): No blizzard indoors, and Minn doesn't stop people.
3. Cam Newton (CAR): You can go deep on the Jets and the Jets may stop CAR run attack (except Cam).
4. Drew Brees (NO): STL has good rush, but Brees is a whole different player indoors.
5. Matt Ryan (ATL): WSH is bad right now and Matty Ice will throw a ton in the dome.
6. Phil Rivers (SD): Expect a lot of points Thurs night. DEN also allows 25+ points a game.
7. Matt Stafford (DET): Matchup not great, but he is back indoors.
8. Josh McCown (CHI): Won't be as good as he was Monday, but Brady torched the Browns for 400+, most in 2nd half.
9. Russell Wilson (SEA): Might be some weather, but that'll just force him to run a bit.
10. Tom Brady (NE): No Gronk, a decent defense and he wasn't so hot vs. Dolphins earlier this year.
11. Andrew Luck (IND): HOU is a dumpster fire and Luck killed them last time.
12. Alex Smith (KC): He is better than Geno Smith.

Just out: Romo, Kaepernick, Flacco

Try to avoid: Manning (The one who plays for NYG)

Possible sleeper: Tannehill

RB

Most of the RB news is about Adrian Peterson. Don't expect him to play. Maurice Jones-Drew is probably out as well. Reggie Bush and Eddie Lacy figure to play.

We had LeSean McCoy way too low last week. Too high on Ben Tate, but the rest were not so bad.

1. LeSean McCoy (PHI): Minn made Ray Rice look good again.
2. Eddie Lacy (GB): He'll get all the carries he wants to keep Matt Flynn away from mistakes.
3. DeMarco Murray (DAL): Team is finding good things happen when they hand him the ball (At least on offense). Good matchup too.
4. Knowshon Moreno (DEN): Expect TDs all over and they are missing Welker, so bump up other weapons.
5. Jamaal Charles (KC): Only this far down because they'll get a big early lead, then Knile Davis will mop up.
6. Matt Forte (CHI): CLE a bit tough on run, but he will get a bunch of touches in the passing game.
7. Marshawn Lynch (SEA): He is better than Ryan Mathews, who pummeled NYG for over 100.
8. Shane Vereen (NE): He will get some of Gronk's targets and like last week will make the most of them.
9. Alfred Morris (WSH): Expect lots of carries to protect Kirk Cousins.
10. Zac Stacy (STL): NO has become a good defense, but ARZ is the only team to stop him so far.
11. Andre Brown (NYG): Tough matchup, but they may have more luck running than passing (a la SF last week).
12. Gio Bernard (CIN): Better matchup than it looks, and he killed PIT in 1st meeting this year.
13. Frank Gore (SF): Solid, but expect a rout and the other backs to deaden the 4th Q clock.
14. Reggie Bush (DET): No ice to slip on indoors at home.
15. Rashad Jennings (OAK): They'll be able to run a bit. Q is how soon will they have to throw each down.
16. Ben Tate (HOU): He's been a bit inconsistent, but he is playing for a contract.
17. CJ Spiller (BUF): JAX defense has been better of late, but CJ's O-line can't get flagged every time he breaks one.
18. Chris Johnson (TEN): ARZ bottled up Stacy. CJzeroK's only shot is to break a long one.
19. Steven Jackson (ATL): He is starting to look a little like the guy we thought he'd be.
20. Toby Gerhart (MIN): Hammy issue, but with AP out, he'll get 20+ carries.
21. Bobby Rainey (TB): Matchup isn't great, but he has been OK in tough matchups before.
22. Andre Ellington (ARZ): TEN great vs. pass...not as great vs. the run.
23. Ryan Mathews (SD): Has been great last 5 games, but expect SD to throw a lot to keep up.
24. Le'Veon Bell (PIT): Bad matchup and a game CIN really needs more than PIT.
25. Chris Ogbonnaya (CLE): McGahee out. He may steamroll the 3 little bears defense.

Just out: Pierre Thomas, Rashard Mendenhall, Daniel Thomas

Try to avoid: Chris Ivory, Ray Rice

Possible sleeper: Danny Woodhead

WR

No Wes Welker this week. Bumps to all the other DEN weapons.

Last week we whiffed on Megatron, though the face full of snow was worth it. Besides that and having Alshon Jeffery too low (again), we were pretty good.

1. Josh Gordon (CLE): Think if he hadn't missed the first 2 games.
2. Calvin Johnson (DET): It will not be snowing Monday night against the Ravens.
3. Demaryious Thomas (DEN): Good matchup. Won't have to share with Welker.
4. DeSean Jackson (PHI): Lots of TDs in this one. Deep ones, too.
5. Andre Johnson (HOU): He is about to get 100 catches and 1,400 yards for 4th time in his career.
6. AJ Green (CIN): He just seems to get open. How I have no idea. Marvin Jones as a credible decoy?
7. Alshon Jeffery (CHI): That catch in the corner of the end zone was fantastic. Loved shot of Marshall looking at AJ's feet.
8. Eric Decker (DEN): See Thomas above.
9. Larry Fitzgerald (ARZ): Playing in the slot seems to agree with him.
10. Brandon Marshall (CHI): Seems odd ranking him 2nd on his own team. Not sure that's ever been done.
11. Dez Bryant (DAL): Not sure what is happening here. Only 4 targets Monday night.
12. Keenan Allen (SD): He just keeps getting better. Good matchup and River's 1st option.
13. Riley Cooper (PHI): Will no doubt get a couple deep balls.
14. Torrey Smith (BAL): You can throw on DET.
15. Antonio Brown (PIT): CIN is a tough matchup, but Brown has been close to matchup proof.
16. Roddy White (ATL): Healthy now, and moving back up the ranks to where he belongs.
17. Pierre Garcon (WSH): Down this low because of QB change, uncertainty of Reed drawing attention.
18. Vincent Jackson (TB): Tough matchup as Glennon will spend a lot of time on his back.
19. Michael Crabtree (SF): Gradual improvement and Revis probably will follow Boldin.
20. Marques Colston (NO): Maybe not as good as last week, but he seems to be back.
21. Julian Edelman (NE): Brady's trusted WR. Was getting 10+ targets/game when Gronk was out before.
22. Brandon La Fell (CAR): He will get a long one over top the sketchy NYJ deep pass defense.
23. Rod Streater (OAK): A lot of it will come in garbage time.
24. Michael Floyd (ARZ): Nicked up and questions about Palmer's ability to throw deep have him lower.
25. TY Hilton (IND): Last time vs. HOU had 121 and 3 TDs.

Just out: Harry Douglas, Cecil Shorts, Jordy Nelson

Try to avoid: Victor Cruz, Anquan Boldin

Possible sleeper: Cordarelle Patterson

TE

The position most in flux. Rob Gronkowski is out. Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker figure to be back. Fringe guys John Carlson, Athony Fasano both are iffy.

Besides Charles Clay, we didn't really have anyone too low. A couple of guys were too high, but the population of guys at this position is small.

1. Jimmy Graham (NO): With Gronk out, he becomes de facto 1.
2. Julius Thomas (DEN): Same reasons as Decker/Thomas bumps.
3. Delanie Walker (TEN): ARZ is worst in the league defending TEs.
4. Greg Olsen (CAR): NYJ can be thrown on and Cam looks his way first.
5. Vernon Davis (SF): He is usually a lock for a TD each game.
6. Antonio Gates (SD): DEN has had trouble defending TEs as well.
7. Charles Clay (MIA): Did you see what Jordan Cameron did against NE last week?
8. Jason Witten (DAL): He only had 1 catch last week. I thought it was a typo.
9. Dennis Pitta (BAL): Had no snap count and scored already. Flacco needs him to make a run to playoffs.
10. Martellus Bennett (CHI): CHI offense will probably look good again and he'll see some of it.
11. Tony Gonzalez (ATL): Has been inconsistent.
12. Jordan Cameron (CLE): Had been slumping before last week. Repeat or regress?

Just out: Jordan Reed, Coby Fleener, Garrett Graham

Try to avoid: Jared Cook

Possible sleeper: Ladarius Green

DEF

We wrongly believed in OAK and not KC last week.

1. SEA...NYG still turning ball over.
2. CAR...NYJ not a good road team and have no consistency.
3. KC...OK I believe again...and they are playing OAK
4. SF...gets a rookie QB.
5. ARZ...Fitz good for picks.
6. JAX...not a typo...averaging 10 pts/game over last 5.
7. PHI...Minn will turn it over, regardless of who plays QB.
8. CIN...Because usually they tackle better than they did last week.
9. ATL...I'm not sold on Cousins.
10. IND...HOU swirling down the drain.

Just out: PIT

Try to avoid: SD, DAL, CHI

Possible sleeper: BUF

K

As I have been saying, even before it started getting cold/snowy, try to get dome kickers and guys playing in warm weather.

1. Matt Prater (DEN)...the exception
2. Alex Henery (PHI)...zero in the snow...lots indoors
3. Adam Vinateri (IND)...dome
4. Justin Tucker (BAL)...dome
5. Matt Bryant (ATL)...dome
6. Kai Forbath (WSH)...dome
7. Greg Zuerlein (STL)...dome
8. Blair Walsh (MIN):...dome
9. Garrett Hartley (NO)...dome
10. Dan Bailey (DAL)...dome

Just out: anyone else in a dome

Try to avoid: Josh Brown

Possible sleeper: Be real, no such thing as sleeper kicker...

Good luck in the playoffs everyone. I am available for questions at @mhosinskiLLP